For a guy who was supposed to be our next superstar, Matt Kemp's 23 year old season left much to be desired. The much maligned Todd Hollandworth had a better season when he was ridiculed for winning the ROY. Among Dodger outfielders who have had at least 100 games and played 50% of those in the outfield and had an OPS+ > 100, Matt Kemp sits at the bottom. Still a nice season but one likes to see growth from age 22 to age 23 and that didn't happen, unless you like stolen bases. Thanks to Baseball Reference for the info. I didn't link to their Player Index system because they only allow one sort and I wanted this sorted by age and then OPS+.
Notice Andre Ethier making a nice showing at every age group.
| Name | OPS+ | Year | Age | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Ron Fairly | 145 | 1961 | 22 | 301 | 0.322 | 0.434 | 0.522 | 0.956 |
| Duke Snider | 123 | 1949 | 22 | 615 | 0.292 | 0.361 | 0.493 | 0.854 |
| Bill Buckner | 117 | 1972 | 22 | 405 | 0.319 | 0.348 | 0.41 | 0.758 |
| Willie Davis | 116 | 1962 | 22 | 666 | 0.285 | 0.334 | 0.453 | 0.787 |
| Willie Crawford | 111 | 1969 | 22 | 440 | 0.247 | 0.331 | 0.401 | 0.732 |
| Tommy Davis | 149 | 1962 | 23 | 711 | 0.346 | 0.374 | 0.535 | 0.909 |
| Duke Snider | 140 | 1950 | 23 | 684 | 0.321 | 0.379 | 0.553 | 0.932 |
| Raul Mondesi | 123 | 1994 | 23 | 454 | 0.306 | 0.333 | 0.516 | 0.849 |
| Mike Marshall | 117 | 1983 | 23 | 518 | 0.284 | 0.347 | 0.434 | 0.781 |
| Todd Hollandswort | 113 | 1996 | 23 | 526 | 0.291 | 0.348 | 0.437 | 0.785 |
| Frank Howard | 107 | 1960 | 23 | 487 | 0.268 | 0.32 | 0.464 | 0.784 |
| Matt Kemp | 103 | 2008 | 23 | 633 | 0.289 | 0.337 | 0.455 | 0.792 |
| Tommy Davis | 141 | 1963 | 24 | 597 | 0.326 | 0.359 | 0.457 | 0.816 |
| Willie Crawford | 124 | 1971 | 24 | 375 | 0.281 | 0.334 | 0.442 | 0.776 |
| Raul Mondesi | 123 | 1995 | 24 | 580 | 0.285 | 0.328 | 0.496 | 0.824 |
| Duke Snider | 118 | 1951 | 24 | 672 | 0.277 | 0.344 | 0.483 | 0.827 |
| Bill Buckner | 117 | 1974 | 24 | 620 | 0.314 | 0.351 | 0.412 | 0.763 |
| Andre Ethier | 113 | 2006 | 24 | 441 | 0.308 | 0.365 | 0.477 | 0.842 |
| Mike Marshall | 112 | 1984 | 24 | 541 | 0.257 | 0.315 | 0.438 | 0.753 |
| Willie Davis | 110 | 1964 | 24 | 652 | 0.294 | 0.316 | 0.413 | 0.729 |
| Frank Howard | 147 | 1962 | 25 | 538 | 0.296 | 0.346 | 0.56 | 0.906 |
| Mike Marshall | 140 | 1985 | 25 | 564 | 0.293 | 0.342 | 0.515 | 0.857 |
| Duke Snider | 136 | 1952 | 25 | 598 | 0.303 | 0.368 | 0.494 | 0.862 |
| Raul Mondesi | 123 | 1996 | 25 | 673 | 0.297 | 0.334 | 0.495 | 0.829 |
| Tommy Davis | 105 | 1964 | 25 | 631 | 0.275 | 0.311 | 0.397 | 0.708 |
| Carl Furillo | 104 | 1947 | 25 | 476 | 0.295 | 0.347 | 0.437 | 0.784 |
| Andre Ethier | 103 | 2007 | 25 | 505 | 0.284 | 0.35 | 0.452 | 0.802 |
| Reggie Williams | 101 | 1986 | 25 | 338 | 0.277 | 0.331 | 0.376 | 0.707 |
| Franklin Stubbs | 101 | 1986 | 25 | 465 | 0.226 | 0.291 | 0.421 | 0.712 |
| Duke Snider | 166 | 1953 | 26 | 680 | 0.336 | 0.419 | 0.627 | 1.046 |
| Pedro Guerrero | 156 | 1982 | 26 | 652 | 0.304 | 0.378 | 0.536 | 0.914 |
| Kal Daniels | 154 | 1990 | 26 | 526 | 0.296 | 0.389 | 0.531 | 0.92 |
| Frank Howard | 149 | 1963 | 26 | 459 | 0.273 | 0.33 | 0.518 | 0.848 |
| Raul Mondesi | 140 | 1997 | 26 | 670 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.541 | 0.901 |
| Willie Crawford | 139 | 1973 | 26 | 543 | 0.295 | 0.396 | 0.453 | 0.849 |
| Sandy Amoros | 132 | 1956 | 26 | 361 | 0.26 | 0.385 | 0.517 | 0.902 |
| Andre Ethier | 124 | 2008 | 26 | 575 | 0.301 | 0.368 | 0.509 | 0.877 |
| Stan Javier | 118 | 1990 | 26 | 321 | 0.304 | 0.384 | 0.399 | 0.783 |
| Ron Fairly | 115 | 1965 | 26 | 654 | 0.274 | 0.361 | 0.377 | 0.738 |
| Carl Furillo | 109 | 1948 | 26 | 414 | 0.297 | 0.374 | 0.407 | 0.781 |
| Milton Bradley | 108 | 2004 | 26 | 597 | 0.267 | 0.362 | 0.424 | 0.786 |
| Mike Marshall | 108 | 1986 | 26 | 362 | 0.233 | 0.298 | 0.439 | 0.737 |
| Bill Buckner | 105 | 1976 | 26 | 680 | 0.301 | 0.326 | 0.389 | 0.715 |
| Willie Davis | 102 | 1966 | 26 | 653 | 0.284 | 0.302 | 0.405 | 0.707 |
0 recs | 9 comments
Right, but Hollandsworth never projected to hit like that for even one year. And he proved it ever since then. And he was a left fielder.
I dunno, I expected regression to come for Kemp from last year’s small sample size numbers. His HR total was also expected to drop, IMO. Despite his power, he’s always demonstrated a propensity to hit an amazing number of groundballs.
I actually think this year was a good one for him. Not so much because he showed signs of drastic improvement, but because he’s established that he is an everyday center fielder that has the ability to be an above average hitter. Also, last time I checked he was still top 10 in VORP among centerfielders. Even if he doesn’t progress, which he should, he’s still very valuable.
I hope Ethier outhits him too, since he plays right field. Ethier’s also Top 10 for his position in VORP, just like Kemp. Throw in Manny, and you’ve got Top 10 VORPs in the majors at every position in the Dodgers’ outfield. Not bad.
Chad Moriyama - September 22, 2008
I was around during that time
and quite a few people expected Hollandsworth to develop more power. It never happened but his season didn’t come out of the blue, he was expected to be a good player.
Phil Gurnee - September 22, 2008
Maybe I was the only one who thought he was a fluke then.
Chad Moriyama - September 22, 2008
I was always under the impression that Hollandsworth never fulfilled his potential due to chronic injury problems, rather than him not really having very much of it.
Tango and Cash - September 22, 2008
EqAs-Age 23 season
Kemp does a little better here.
Tommy Davis- .323
Duke Snider- .307
Mike Marshall- .289
Raul Mondesi- .287
Matt Kemp- .286
Todd Hollandsworth- .283
Frank Howard- .269
I like Kemp’s improvements. His defense seems to have improved, his walk rate has gotten a little better, and he should start hitting for power in the next couple of years. If Kemp can stay in centerfield long-term, we’ve solved our CF problem, at least.
Tango and Cash - September 22, 2008
Yeah, that’s what I meant. The position difference is what’s most important. Center fielders really suck at hitting.
Also, I think his defense should stick. He’ll always misread a few balls, and he’ll never win a Gold Glove, but his speed should allow him to be an average/above average center fielder for a while.
Chad Moriyama - September 22, 2008
Becoming a CF is his saving grace
right now. Of that list, he’s the only one who is a CF which had to help his EQA since that is position dependent. Other then Duke of course, and he was a superstar.
Kemp as a CF should be very valuable, I was just hoping for more. He did cut his K rate quite a bit in the 2nd half but it didn’t result in any more production. At least for now.
Phil Gurnee - September 22, 2008
Fear Mongering
Francoeur: K/BB-AVG/OBP/SLG
Kemp: K/BB-AVG/OBP/SLG
Age 22
20.3/3.4-.260/.293/.449
22.6/5.2-.342/.373/.521
Age 23
20.1/6.1-.293/.338/.444
25.3/6.8-.289//.337/.455
Age 24
17.8/6.4-.239/.297/.361
?
I’m not trying to suggest Kemp is doomed to collapse, or Francoeur can’t turn it around, but those age 23 seasons are closer than I’d like. And Kemp’s control of the strike zone is a serious concern. Just realized it’s Kemp’s birthday tomorrow, so happy birthday Matt.
dan310 - September 22, 2008
Fear...soothing?
Kemp-Francoeur-Age 23
LD%
23.0-19.4
Both trending upwards.
IF/F%
1.4-14.9
Both trending down.
HR/F%
11.2-9.7
Kemp trending up, Jeff down.
Though batting average dependent players are always subject to variation. If Kemp learns to cut down his strikeouts, his batting average could increase quite significantly. He wouldn’t even have to hit line drives really, just groundballs. With his speed his BABIP should be above his LD%+12 anyway.
Chad Moriyama - September 22, 2008
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