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Not bad, Not great

For a guy who was supposed to be our next superstar, Matt Kemp's 23 year old season left much to be desired. The much maligned Todd Hollandworth had a better season when he was ridiculed for winning the ROY. Among Dodger outfielders who have had at least 100 games and played 50% of those in the outfield and had an OPS+ > 100, Matt Kemp sits at the bottom. Still a nice season but one likes to see growth from age 22 to age 23 and that didn't happen, unless you like stolen bases. Thanks to Baseball Reference for the info. I didn't link to their Player Index system because they only allow one sort and I wanted this sorted by age and then OPS+.

Notice Andre Ethier making a nice showing at every age group.

Name OPS+ Year Age PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Ron Fairly 145 1961 22 301 0.322 0.434 0.522 0.956
Duke Snider 123 1949 22 615 0.292 0.361 0.493 0.854
Bill Buckner 117 1972 22 405 0.319 0.348 0.41 0.758
Willie Davis 116 1962 22 666 0.285 0.334 0.453 0.787
Willie Crawford 111 1969 22 440 0.247 0.331 0.401 0.732
Tommy Davis 149 1962 23 711 0.346 0.374 0.535 0.909
Duke Snider 140 1950 23 684 0.321 0.379 0.553 0.932
Raul Mondesi 123 1994 23 454 0.306 0.333 0.516 0.849
Mike Marshall 117 1983 23 518 0.284 0.347 0.434 0.781
Todd Hollandswort 113 1996 23 526 0.291 0.348 0.437 0.785
Frank Howard 107 1960 23 487 0.268 0.32 0.464 0.784
Matt Kemp 103 2008 23 633 0.289 0.337 0.455 0.792
Tommy Davis 141 1963 24 597 0.326 0.359 0.457 0.816
Willie Crawford 124 1971 24 375 0.281 0.334 0.442 0.776
Raul Mondesi 123 1995 24 580 0.285 0.328 0.496 0.824
Duke Snider 118 1951 24 672 0.277 0.344 0.483 0.827
Bill Buckner 117 1974 24 620 0.314 0.351 0.412 0.763
Andre Ethier 113 2006 24 441 0.308 0.365 0.477 0.842
Mike Marshall 112 1984 24 541 0.257 0.315 0.438 0.753
Willie Davis 110 1964 24 652 0.294 0.316 0.413 0.729
Frank Howard 147 1962 25 538 0.296 0.346 0.56 0.906
Mike Marshall 140 1985 25 564 0.293 0.342 0.515 0.857
Duke Snider 136 1952 25 598 0.303 0.368 0.494 0.862
Raul Mondesi 123 1996 25 673 0.297 0.334 0.495 0.829
Tommy Davis 105 1964 25 631 0.275 0.311 0.397 0.708
Carl Furillo 104 1947 25 476 0.295 0.347 0.437 0.784
Andre Ethier 103 2007 25 505 0.284 0.35 0.452 0.802
Reggie Williams 101 1986 25 338 0.277 0.331 0.376 0.707
Franklin Stubbs 101 1986 25 465 0.226 0.291 0.421 0.712
Duke Snider 166 1953 26 680 0.336 0.419 0.627 1.046
Pedro Guerrero 156 1982 26 652 0.304 0.378 0.536 0.914
Kal Daniels 154 1990 26 526 0.296 0.389 0.531 0.92
Frank Howard 149 1963 26 459 0.273 0.33 0.518 0.848
Raul Mondesi 140 1997 26 670 0.31 0.36 0.541 0.901
Willie Crawford 139 1973 26 543 0.295 0.396 0.453 0.849
Sandy Amoros 132 1956 26 361 0.26 0.385 0.517 0.902
Andre Ethier 124 2008 26 575 0.301 0.368 0.509 0.877
Stan Javier 118 1990 26 321 0.304 0.384 0.399 0.783
Ron Fairly 115 1965 26 654 0.274 0.361 0.377 0.738
Carl Furillo 109 1948 26 414 0.297 0.374 0.407 0.781
Milton Bradley 108 2004 26 597 0.267 0.362 0.424 0.786
Mike Marshall 108 1986 26 362 0.233 0.298 0.439 0.737
Bill Buckner 105 1976 26 680 0.301 0.326 0.389 0.715
Willie Davis 102 1966 26 653 0.284 0.302 0.405 0.707

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Comments

Right, but Hollandsworth never projected to hit like that for even one year. And he proved it ever since then. And he was a left fielder.

I dunno, I expected regression to come for Kemp from last year’s small sample size numbers. His HR total was also expected to drop, IMO. Despite his power, he’s always demonstrated a propensity to hit an amazing number of groundballs.

I actually think this year was a good one for him. Not so much because he showed signs of drastic improvement, but because he’s established that he is an everyday center fielder that has the ability to be an above average hitter. Also, last time I checked he was still top 10 in VORP among centerfielders. Even if he doesn’t progress, which he should, he’s still very valuable.

I hope Ethier outhits him too, since he plays right field. Ethier’s also Top 10 for his position in VORP, just like Kemp. Throw in Manny, and you’ve got Top 10 VORPs in the majors at every position in the Dodgers’ outfield. Not bad.

I was around during that time

and quite a few people expected Hollandsworth to develop more power. It never happened but his season didn’t come out of the blue, he was expected to be a good player.

Maybe I was the only one who thought he was a fluke then.

I was always under the impression that Hollandsworth never fulfilled his potential due to chronic injury problems, rather than him not really having very much of it.

EqAs-Age 23 season

Kemp does a little better here.

Tommy Davis- .323
Duke Snider- .307
Mike Marshall- .289
Raul Mondesi- .287
Matt Kemp- .286
Todd Hollandsworth- .283
Frank Howard- .269

 I like Kemp’s improvements. His defense seems to have improved, his walk rate has gotten a little better, and he should start hitting for power in the next couple of years. If Kemp can stay in centerfield long-term, we’ve solved our CF problem, at least.

Yeah, that’s what I meant. The position difference is what’s most important. Center fielders really suck at hitting.

Also, I think his defense should stick. He’ll always misread a few balls, and he’ll never win a Gold Glove, but his speed should allow him to be an average/above average center fielder for a while.

Becoming a CF is his saving grace

right now. Of that list, he’s the only one who is a CF which had to help his EQA since that is position dependent. Other then Duke of course, and he was a superstar.

Kemp as a CF should be very valuable, I was just hoping for more. He did cut his K rate quite a bit in the 2nd half but it didn’t result in any more production. At least for now.

Fear Mongering

Francoeur: K/BB-AVG/OBP/SLG
Kemp: K/BB-AVG/OBP/SLG

Age 22
20.3/3.4-.260/.293/.449
22.6/5.2-.342/.373/.521

Age 23
20.1/6.1-.293/.338/.444
25.3/6.8-.289//.337/.455

Age 24
17.8/6.4-.239/.297/.361
?

I’m not trying to suggest Kemp is doomed to collapse, or Francoeur can’t turn it around, but those age 23 seasons are closer than I’d like. And Kemp’s control of the strike zone is a serious concern. Just realized it’s Kemp’s birthday tomorrow, so happy birthday Matt.

Fear...soothing?

Kemp-Francoeur-Age 23

LD%
23.0-19.4

Both trending upwards.

IF/F%
1.4-14.9

Both trending down.

HR/F%
11.2-9.7

Kemp trending up, Jeff down.

Though batting average dependent players are always subject to variation. If Kemp learns to cut down his strikeouts, his batting average could increase quite significantly. He wouldn’t even have to hit line drives really, just groundballs. With his speed his BABIP should be above his LD%+12 anyway.

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