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2012 NL West Offseason Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Like in 1988 with the Dodgers, Kirk Gibson won the highest honor bestowed to his position by the Baseball Writers Association of America in his first full season with Arizona in 2011. Will Gibson's next two years at the helm of the Diamondbacks resemble his 1989-1990 seasons in Los Angeles?

Stephen Dunn - Getty Images

Like in 1988 with the Dodgers, Kirk Gibson won the highest honor bestowed to his position by the Baseball Writers Association of America in his first full season with Arizona in 2011. Will Gibson's next two years at the helm of the Diamondbacks resemble his 1989-1990 seasons in Los Angeles?

Now that we are getting close enough to spring training that we can almost smell the grass (Dodgers pitchers and catchers report to spring training in a mere 15 days), it is time for our annual look around the National League West, to see how each team spent their offseason. We begin the tour around the division with the defending division champions, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Five Questions

Arizona Diamondbacks
2011 Record: 94-68
Division Finish:
First Place
Playoffs:
Lost to MIL in Division Series 3-2
2012 at Dodger Stadium:
May 14-15, Jul 30-Aug 1, Aug 30-Sep 2
2012 Dodgers at Chase Field: May 21-23, Jul 5-8, Sep 11-12
SB Nation coverage: AZ Snakepit, SB Nation Arizona

1) Is Miguel Montero the best catcher in the division?

This might depend on the health of Buster Posey, but Montero is not a bad choice for the top spot in the NL West. Montero hit .282/.351/.469 with a .351 wOBA, a 121 OPS+ and 116 wRC+ in 2011.

In addition to hitting 36 doubles and 18 home runs, Montero threw out 40% of would-be basestealers in 2011 and made his first All-Star team.

Montero, 28, avoided arbitration with a one-year deal for 2012, and could cash in next winter with a big year in his final year before free agency.

2) Will Stephen Drew be ready for opening day?

The Diamondbacks aren't sure. The shortstop broke his ankle last July 20 and has spent his offseason rehabilitating with a non-Diamondbacks trainer.

"I'm hopeful he'll play in some games in spring training. Will he play in our opening game? I don't know. I haven't laid eyes on him other than to see him on video doing some agility drills," general manager Kevin Towers told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic last week. "We'll have a better idea probably at the end of February when the position players show up. I would imagine he may be in a little earlier than that."

Arizona re-signed both John McDonald and Willie Bloomquist during the winter, giving them depth should Drew not be ready to rejoin the team. One person hoping Drew takes his time during recovery is Chad Billingsley, as Drew has hit .364/.426/.545 off Billingsley in 61 plate appearances.

Scary Thought About The Diamondbacks:
Justin-upton-2011-playoffs-getty_medium
Justin Upton is not yet 25 years old

3) Where did Josh Collmenter's control come from?

Collmenter was 25 years old last year when he made his major league debut, and after seven relief appearances he made his first start, on May 14 at Dodger Stadium. Billingsley allowed one hit to the Diamondbacks, but Arizona won 1-0 thanks to six scoreless innings from the right-hander with the tomahawk pitching motion.

Collmenter walked zero or one batter in 16 of his 24 starts, and walked 4.5% of the major league hitters he faced, after walking 8.2% of the hitters he faced in five minor league seasons.

4) Will Diamondbacks pitchers outhit Juan Uribe again?

Okay, maybe that is a stretch, but if you squint it is hard to tell them apart. Arizona hurlers hit a combined .186/.230/.250 in 2011, while the Dodgers' $21 million man hit .204/.264/.293. Uribe had 28 RBI, 17 walks, and 79 total bases in 295 plate appearances last year, while Diamondbacks pitchers had 34 RBI, 16 walks, and 78 total bases in 362 PA.

Lest you think this was all Micah Owings-driven, the new Padres pitcher had only four singles in 19 plate appearances in Arizona in 2011.

Through September 17 last year, game 151, Diamondbacks pitcher Daniel Hudson had more RBI (14) than Jamey Carroll (13), who qualified for the batting title. Carroll ended his season with 17 runs batted in.

5) Can the new owner of the Dodgers poach former team executive Derrick Hall, currently the President and CEO of the Diamondbacks?

Maybe, but for now Hall is saying all the right things, and sounds sincere. Steve Henson of Yahoo! wrote a wonderful profile of Hall, one of the most respected executives in baseball, who battled prostate cancer during the offseason. As part of the profile, Henson mentioned that a few potential Dodgers owners have reached out to Hall to join their group should they win the bid for the team.

"It's a big part of who I am. It's where I started my career and learned and cut my teeth. And I know the fans and have a good relationship with the media and former players," Hall told Piecoro of his time with the Dodgers. "It's a lot of familiarity and comfort there, but nothing beats where I'm at or what I'm doing now."

Offseason Moves

Diamondbacks Trades, Etc. This Winter
Team Traded Acquired
Pirates Brett Lorin rhp (Rule 5 pick from Pittsburgh)
Athletics Collin Cowgill of
Jarrod Parker rhp
Ryan Cook rhp
Trevor Cahill rhp
Craig Breslow lhp
Astros Craig Tatum c (claimed off waivers from Houston)

The big move was acquiring Cahill, a soon-to-be 24-year old durable starting pitcher signed through 2015 with option years carrying him through his age 29 season in 2017. Parker was the big prize given up in the deal.

Diamondbacks Contracts Signed This Winter
Pos Player Type Total Contract 2012 Salary
1B Lyle Overbay FA 1-year, $1m $1,000,000
SS John McDonald FA 2 years, $3m $1,500,000
C Henry Blanco FA 1-year, $1.2m + option $1,200,000
IF Willie Bloomquist FA 2 years, $3.8m $1,900,000*
2B Aaron Hill FA 2 years, $11m $5,500,000*
RP Takashi Saito FA 1 year, $1.75m $1,750,000
OF Jason Kubel FA 2 years, $16m + option $7,500,000
SP Joe Saunders FA 1-year, $6m $6,000,000
RP Brad Ziegler Arb 1-year, $1.795m $1,795,000
C Miguel Montero Arb 1-year, $5.9m $5,900,000
3B Ryan Roberts Arb 1-year, $2.0125m $2,012,500
RP Craig Breslow Arb Filed for arbitration: $1.5m / $2.1m
*Estimated

Saunders was non-tendered in December, then re-signed in January. Arizona also signed infielders Cody Ransom and Rusty Ryal, and outfielder Jason Lane to minor league deals.

Star-divide

Diamondbacks Players Lost
Pos Player New Team
SP Jason Marquis Twins
P Micah Owings Padres
SP Zach Duke Astros*
RP Juan Gutierrez Royals*
RP Kam Mickolio Hiroshima Carp
1B Xavier Nady free agent
*Minor league deal

Here's my guess as to the Diamondbacks' 25-man roster, with a few assumptions mixed in:

2012 Diamondbacks Under Contract
Pos Player 2012 Age* 2012 Salary
C Miguel Montero 28 $5,900,000
1B Paul Goldschmidt
24
team control
2B Aaron Hill
30
$5,500,000#
3B Ryan Roberts
31
$2,012,500
SS Stephen Drew 29 $7,750,000
LF Jason Kubel
30
$7,500,000
CF Chris Young 28 $7,000,000
RF Justin Upton 24 $6,750,000
IF Geoff Blum 39 $1,350,000
IF/OF Willie Bloomquist 34 $1,900,000#
IF John McDonald
37
$1,500,000
OF Gerardo Parra 25 team control
1B Lyle Overbay 35 $1,000,000
C Henry Blanco 40
$1,200,000
SP Ian Kennedy 27 team control
SP Dan Hudson 25 team control
SP Trevor Cahill
24
$3,500,000
SP Joe Saunders 31 $6,000,000
SP Josh Collmenter
26
team control
CL J.J. Putz 35 $4,500,000
RHP Brad Ziegler
32 $1,795,000
RHP David Hernandez 27
team control
RHP Takashi Saito
42
$1,750,000
LHP Craig Breslow
31
$1,800,000^
RHP Sam Demel 26 team control
Totals (18 players)
$68,707,500
*Age as of June 30, 2012
#estimated
^midpoint of Breslow's arbitration filings

Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com and Cot's Baseball Contracts. Justin Upton photo courtesy of Getty Images.

0 recs  |  500 comments

Comments

hope you don't already have the Rockies preview written

They just traded for Jeremy Guthrie. Sent Hammel and Lindstrom to BAL

Guthrie will make $8.2 million this year, his final year before free agency, per his agency.

Which is less than Lindstrom and Hammel so I guess the Orioles really thought having Jason Hammel in 2013 was the key.

Always someone with nice peripherals whose numbers seemed worse then his skill set.

Took a huge step backwards last year but he at least kept his BABIP under .330.

Minor upgrade for the Rockies, but a pitch to contact fly ball guy could get brutalized in Coors.

Their Tweets Above Replacement just shot way the hell up though.

Old post up top

There is a sponsored post just below this one for Yahoo Sports Fantasy Baseball. No need to move there for comments, but if you are interested in the product you can read that post.

Eric, I appreciate that you are fulfilling your obligations without being a total shill. Thank you.

Kuo signed with the Mariners

From Peter H.L. Wang:

$500k base, $2.25m in bonuses, $1m if he makes the 25-man roster.

Wouldn’t mind if the Dodgers did that.

Yeah

Strange way to say good bye to Kuroda and Kuo given what they ended up signing for.

Hope it works out for him

Sorry to see him go, definitely one of my favorite players of the last several years.

Hate to see him leave. Love to watch him Kuo.

Excellent job here.

Going to make my series previews so much easier the first time they meet.

Good read

Always interesting to see how others see AZ. Couple of notes on the roster:
a) there’ll be one less infielder and an extra bullpen arm (probably Bryan Shaw) – if Drew starts the year on the DL, that will take care of it, otherwise they may dump Geoff Blum.
b) It’ll be LOOGY Joe Paterson instead of Sam Demel in the ’pen.

I usually always plan for a 12-man pitching staff, but adjusted it above just because AZ happened to have all of those bench guys signed.

Clint Eastwood teared me up.
Hyundai fired me up
godaddy stirred me up

My favorites were the BMW ad where the car reads him the text about his mother-in-law and the Audi one with Jerry Seinfeld and Jay Leno.

Or was it Acura with Seinfeld?

Either way, it didn’t work.

Right, but presumably it’ll sink in over the next million viewings that will be broadcast. The car was pretty though.

That one was my favorite

Doritos won me over with the dead cat.

Verdell took the Dorito bag from me and threw it out

Clint Eastwood, at 81, still a tough SOB.

Great commercial. I will stay off his lawn.

Diamondbacks

will be one of the most overrated teams headed in to the 2012 season.

Other than CF and the first Starter is there one position the Dodgers outgun the Diamondbacks at?

I’d take Jansen over Putz.

I also expect Loney to outperform Overbay and Uibe to be better than Roberts this year. Mark Ellis and Aaron Hill are probably a wash.

Could Ethier match, maybe even have a better season then Upton? or no?

He could. But Upton is the better player.

Overbay is the backup 1B

I’d certainly expect LA’s starter will outperform him.

The Dodgers? Why not just compare the Diamondbacks to the Astros!!!

I knew this would be your response

Because the Astro’s are not the Diamondbacks competition.

The Houston Fallbacks?

Hope so for the Dodgers' sake

But I really don’t see it.

As the 2011 D-backs showed

How teams are “rated” heading in to the season, can easily bear absolutely no resemblance to their actual performance. I seem to recall someone “rating” Arizona at 69 wins, and finishing 12 games back of fourth-place in the NL West…

Right. Nobody can accurately predict win totals for every single team. Way too much randomness involved. Vegas can’t. I can’t. And you can’t. My main point is that the 2012 Diamondbacks will likely get hyped based on their 2011 win total of 94 wins, which by most measurements was heavily luck based. They are a good, slightly above average team – just like a few other teams in the NL West are.

Biggest problem with Arizona is the not the current rotation which is solid but not great but the three kids percolating below the surface in Bauer, Skaggs, and last year’s other number one pick Archie Bradley.

Bauer and Skaggs should both be ready to help in 2012 but at least Archie is several years away.

What a draft last year for them.

Bauer will win 24 games, and Skaggs will win one (on the road).

Please tell me Skaggs'

nickname is Boz

Future TBLA headline

“Dodgers Show Skaggs Who’s Boz”

For one of Phil's previews

Lowdown on Skaggs

Ian Kennedy perhiperhals

last two seasons.

K/9: 7.92
BB/9: 2.70
GB/FB: 0.91

His closest comparable over that same time span is “Mystery Pitcher”.
K/9: 7.88
BB/9: 2.61
GB/FB: 1.05

Guess who the mystery pitcher is.
Heading out for a few mintues.

This mystery pitcher also pitched 15 games in relief in 2010, the numbers for which Xeifrank didn’t include here.

Carlos Zambrano?

Lecure is the only one who shows up on Bref using K/9 = 7.88 for the last two years.

Same exercise

for a few of their other starts, except I will give you the answers this time.

Top three comps (K/9, BB/9, GB/FB) last two years sample size.

Daniel Hudson (7.18, 2.18, 0.98)
1. Shaun Marcum (7.34, 2.27, 0.88)
2. Bartolo Colon (7.18, 2.18, 1.24)
3. Jordan Zimmerman (7.07, 1.92, 0.99)

Trevor Cahill (5.90, 3.23, 2.07)
1. Zach Britton (5.63, 3.62, 1.86)
2. Ivan Nova (5.45, 3.17, 1.82)
3. Jake Westbrook (5.41, 3.29, 2.35)

Josh Collmenter (5.83, 1.63, 0.71)
1. Dallas Braden (5.74, 2.05, 0.99)
2. Kevin Slowey (6.48, 1.51, 0.56)
3. Doug Fister (5.55, 1.62, 1.43)

I don’t have the numbers for Joe Saunders with me, but I believe they won’t too impressive. Here is the old Fanpost, where I pulled this from.

The real top comp

for Ian Kennedy in 2012:

+1

Excellent. Blind luck. :)

Wow, I never noticed Kenny Lofton had 1500+ runs scored. With his 600+ SB you’d think he might get some consideration for the hall.

If Rock Raines can’t get in….

I was down with him on the 2006 dodgers. I was expecting disaster but he put up a perfectly cromulent 95 ops+

If only we had re-signed him for 2007 instead of ………

nice empty roads on the way to work today

thank you super bowl

Good thing it was in Indiana and not Los Angeles ;)

Alberto (Flight of the) Contador was stripped of his 2010 Tour de France win for doping. Cycling is terrible.

wau

my friend who is an insane cyclist loved that dude something fierce.

Hey you try riding a bike up a mountain for three weeks straight without a little something extra.

Cycling is one of those sports that I followed only from the accounts of the Tour de France. I remember when Greg LeMond was competing in that event and would read about it. Same with Lance Armstrong, but never was my interested piqued enough to actually watch the event.

But one of my favorite LA Times headlines ever was one of the times when Miguel Indurain won the headline was “Singing Indurain”

I watched it once. It forced me to change my theory that I could watch any sporting event if I cared who won.

Nascar?

I don’t care who wins.

I had a similar thought

And wrote a parody to the tune of “Runaway”

My name’s Miguel Indurain
I am a cyclist, I come from Spain
I won lots of Tours de France
But then some guy named Lance
He won more
He wah-wah-wah-wah-won more…

That’s all I got.

Houston Texans to be the trendy pick for super bowl winner next year?

Every analyst will mention the “injury prone” QB

yeah

if schuab stays healthy they are probably the most balanced team in the league. even with schuab being injury prone in the past they where always the trendy break out team in the past.

So, Pierre-Paul jersey worn to work today or Brandon Jacobs?

Nothing but Eli Maning garb in the building I work

I have a strict “no talking about sports at work” policy, so I often pretend that I don’t care about sporting events.

No way… so you are the boss? Only reason I come to work most days is to talk sports… oh, and drink coffee.

No. It’s a personal policy.

I generally try to avoid talking about sports with most people

it can get heated

So does coffee.

I just don't care for the average persons opinions on sports

Dont be a sports snob man haha…. My only beef with sports talk at work is those that dont even care about a certain sport, yet know what team you love, and then give you a hard time when they lose.

Or yeah, the casual fan, that asks you how the Dodgers are doing, did they win last night? Do they play today? Do they still have so and so on the team?

I remember a lot of people I worked with thinking Juan Pierre was good

That’s the weirdest thing I’ve ever heard. Is there a no weather policy too?

if it wasn't for talking sports

at work, most of the people where I work would never talk to each other. :)

I also do the exact same thing
I now think Kershaw will go to a hearing

He’s worth more than the midpoint, so it’s a worthwhile gamble for him. But if the Dodgers had come up with a better initial figure (7.25 range) they probably would have won.

2011 Diamondbacks

Wins: 94
Pythag Wins: 88
2nd order Pythag: 83.4 (less than Dodgers)
3rd order Pythag: 83.7 (also less than Dodgers)

And if you added up all the win expectancy for all 162 games last year (Diamondbacks) using the closing lines from Vegas for WE, the DIamondbacks were an 80.49 win team.

and from this Fanpost.

Now let’s take a look at how the Diamondbacks did when each individual starting pitcher was on the mound.

Ian Kennedy
Team Record: 25-8 (in games he started)
Vegas Expected Team Record: 16.26 – 16.74 (in games he started)
Note: Vegas got mauled here!!! Of all starting pitchers in the MLB, Ian Kennedy (team record) outperformed his Vegas team win expectancy the most. Clayton Kershaw was #2.

If 2012 was played exactly like 2011 then all this might mean something but last I looked the Diamondbacks have added a starting LF, a broken SS, a starting pitcher, a years worth of a 1st baseman, and another year older for a right fielder who has all the skills to put up a MVP season.

Look Phil. All I am saying is that the Diamondbacks are going to be overrated by a lot of people this year and much of it will be based on their 94 win season last year.

Come on and vogue

everybody move to the music, go with the flow

Life is a mystery, everyone must stand alone, I hear you call my name, and it feels like, home.

It’s funny that you like that song for some reason to me, lol.

haha yeah I dont know man, I was 11 when it came out and always liked that song, might be my favorite Madonna song. I use to watch MTV and just wait for the video to come on lol

Great song, awesome video.

The choir in the song too, just make it a powerful song :)

seriously, that's my favorite part

“Let the choir sing…”

What did you think of the David B. ad? I didn’t know he was inked up that much.

I think it was a great testament to the state of the men’s underwear industry

One of my favorite stanzas

Cinderella, she seems so easy
“It takes one to know one,” she smiles
And puts her hands in her back pocket
Bette Davis style
And in comes Romeo; he’s moaning
“You belong to me, I do believe”
And someone says, “You’re in the wrong place my friend”
“You’d better leave”
And the only sound that’s left
After the ambulances go
Is Cinderella, sweeping up on
Desolation Row

Being completely serious

would anyone be interested in a TBLA fantasy baseball league. I know some of y’all do the money leagues, but I was probably gonna play fantasy baseball anyhow. Might as well support a SBNation partner

Yahoo is my favorite of the free leagues. I’d be down with a TBLA league.

Same here. Both football and baseball.

Sorry, same here in I agree Yahoo is the best.

I can only focus on one fantasy team per sport and I’ve already got a fantasy baseball league.

I’ll set it up, post the fanpost when it’s ready

No, I’d be Down,

I usually run one or two (H2H, Roto) but wouldn’t mind passing the torch to someone else.

I could get myself psyched up for the draft, but I don’t think I would pay attention enough throughout the season to be anything other than an absentee owner.

hey, I won reg’s football league as an absentee owner : )

Also if I do end up joining a league it will be an old league I ran for years, but have only played sparingly in the last decade. I employ Mike’s one-fantasy-team-per-sport rule as well, so if I do join it will be the Hideki Irabu Memorial League.

FYP, it should be the Harry, Harry, Harry Aruba Memorial League

I’d be down.

Read above.

Read above to see that you’re down?

you may have missed the joke about the Down's :)
are you going to be readyat 630am saturday?
holy hell that's this weekend already?
I'd be down

Yahoo does good leagues, I’d like to do a Yahoo league or two.

Also down

Hope that doesn’t make me vdown

lmao

this one was great

I can’t afford another son!

Yes. id be in for sure

Ad on TBLA homepage, no lie

Millionaire Men Needed
For Los Angeles Trophy Women

SIIIIIIIIGH

Oh, Frank . . .

Meanwhile the billionaires are saving their millions for Los Angeles Trophy Team.

Trying again (what happened above?):

Meanwhile the billionaires are saving their millions for Los Angeles Trophy Team.

Allen Webster

He wasn’t invited to major league camp, which is a minor upset in my view. I thought they’d might want to get a look at their 7th (?) starter in a few exhibitions. But he’ll get some garbage time innings anyway.

Not much of a surprise to me

how many pitchers without any real success in AA get a camp invite?

I remember watching him pitch last year on TV in spring training.
Did Withrow get one?

If so I think he’s the 7th option right now.

Withrow is already on the 40-man, so yes. But I think Webster will out perform him.

They’ll probably still get a look at him as a minor leaguer who dresses for a game (like Withrow a few years ago.) My thoughts on NRIs is that you give them the invite only if they have a realistic shot of making the team. Webster doesn’t.

Yep, we’ll definitely see him in some “B” games or at the tail end of “A” games. But the Dodgers have definitely given top prospects with no shot at making the team invites in the past.

He might

He certainly has better control, though I’ve always been a big fan of withrow and think he can make it in the majors.

Unless Webster goes nutso he’s probably below Antonini, Withrow and Tucker right now.

Antonini as the lefty John Ely…I can see that. Tucker is a reliever tho.

hm

The human legs

with dog fur are creepy

From LA Observed

The billionaire developer tells Daily News reporter Rick Orlov that for now he’s focusing on a bid for the Dodgers. "After that decision is made, Caruso said, “I will make a decision on mayor.”

Then, if I have time, I may try to take over Sacramento

See LA Trophy Team comment above.

Kershaw crowdsourcing

I went back and tallied up the numbers. There were 22 guesses.

Kershaw is expected to make $8,584,091 in 2012, in a contract signed on February 12.

I believe I was the only person who had Kershaw going to arb and losing

You took the

“first score of the game is a safety” route.

Not really. I hadn’t looked over other guesses before I made that, but I could see the Dodgers winning this. Lincecum isn’t a true comp because he had 2 CYAs rather than Kershaw’s one. And IIRC, even if Kershaw loses, he still sets a record for normal people going to their first hearing.

beats the “normal” record by 49% in fact.

I completely missed this last week

but the Mariners signed Carlos Guillen to a minor league contract.

I believe he is the only man to start on opening day at all four infield positions.

You know it is going to be a great news story when it includes the phrase, “The burrito’s rightful owner walked up to the men and said he wanted his burrito back.”

I like the term “burrito owner.” I hope to be one at lunch today.

You know full well you’ll only be a renter.

Is this

the SilverWidow Story?

Man you pistol whipped a dude for a burrito what would you do for a Klondike Bar? Kill your wife?

haha

just watched that episode last week.

The weird part to me was the victim agreed to give these strangers a bite of his burrito, wtf??? Or maybe he knows these guys.

Do you mind if we dance wif yo burrrito?

The area where this happened is not exactly a great part of town.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the two had introduced some sort of foreign substance into their bodies to make themselves feel better. Besides the burrito, of course.

i find assigning $$$ amounts to WAR..

as bogus.

#1. It shouldnt be linear…
#2. It makes comparative valuations of players based on only a free agent sample…when baseball has rules in place to drive down those values…(since i think 65% of the league is arbitration level or younger anyway)

For instance: James Loney had 2.3 WAR last year….Fangraphs tells me that 1 WAR is worth $4.5 mils on the free agent market….There’s no way James Loney would ever make 10mils a year in free agency…simply because there are way more players available at that lower end of the WAR spectrum available, and also the cost controlled value of arbitration or pre arbitration level talent drives down the price of mediocre free agents.

Would you be adverse to an exponential WAR/$ scale? Something like X^(WAR)?

What does ^ represent?

X to the power of WAR

“to the power of”

Exponent.

Number of females required

Thanks. Never got to taking Trigonometry.

Or used a calculator?

I’ve had one scientific calculator in my life and haven’t used it since HS.

-Ned Colletti

“5 doesn’t go into 44. It’s perfect!”

It’d have to be something like that because its definitely not linear.

As for establishing a base of what 1 WAR is equal to in dollars….why not just include all the players and take the total payroll divided by total WAR?

It just seems like fangraphs inflates the value of players when they start speaking in how much they are worth in real dollars on the free agent market…

true

but i think most baseball fans and writers are off on player values. there’s a lot that goes into contracts that we don’t see and as outsider’s we can’t really have a full understanding of how the market works

Are you mixing players under team control with those that are not?

definitely

The supply of players under team control affects the equilbrium price of free agents.

I think the fallacy of WAR/$ is that it assumes free agency is the only supply of players available to teams when they want a player…but its not. There are other options such as cost controlled players (which the majority of MLB’ers are).

Cost controlled players are not exactly available. They belong to a team unless they want to get rid of them.

It definitely seems like backwards logic when somone like Dave Cameron figures out that someone’s contract happens to align nicely with WAR/$ (or whatever it’s called). He’s always quick to jump in when a contract turns out to be “fair” value. It makes more sense to realize that market value drives contracts.

It’s possible you may be undervaluing just how much crappy players get paid.

I thought ned was the only gm who paid crappy players
The point of WAR-to-$

Is to show what they’re worth on the open market.

Which is why you only include who got paid on said open market.

Simple.

Perhaps

but you need to do the math to disprove some research from some pretty smart people.

It’s based on a really inherently flawed assumption that everyone is evaluating players using WAR.

Help me out. Where is the mission statement stating this.

The assumption is that GMs are totally rational about their signings and value players the same way. If everyone had similar opinions about a player this would mostly work, but it only take one GM giving a defensively incompetent RBI guy a big contract to gum up the system. That guy doesn’t think a 1.5 win player is worth 15 a year, that guy thinks a middle of the order bat that will anchor the lineup for years to come is worth that.

It’s also assuming that all players will degrade equally. If for whatever reason no one thinks a guy that was great has much left in the tank, his WAR/$ is going to be really suppressed.

Plus there’s other factors involved like elite players being undervalued because it’s not a fair market for those players. Or Edwin Jackson taking way less than he could have because fuck Pittsburgh.There’s too many things at work to be able to just plot dollars and WAR on a graph and put a best fit line on there.

I probably agree (i’m not a sme here) that it is not a one size fits all formula, just the best we have to work with. Until I see the “math” showing something better, I will trust and use Tango’s system.

What’s sme because I think I’d enjoy that.

Subject matter expert.

Not nearly as fun as I was hopinh.

I guess he doesn't like Pittsburgh
@Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: Pirates made 3-yr offer to Edwin Jackson. Also made him 1-yr offer in $10MM range.

E-Jax & J-Mac would’ve been an interesting duo.

the guy hasn’t had many opportunities to pick which team he wants to play for

/belated "goddammit Ned" for not signing him, instead signing Harang

oh well…

Sincerely Yours,
Ned Bashing.

Really, must have an extra thousand just lying around.

Should have pulled a Xeifrank and bet $12 a bunch of times.

+1

Tax savings ftw. Or aftw (almost) in my case.

my bosses friend

Put 1000 dollars down on the Giants when they were 100-1 odds earlier in the season…who the hell puts 1000 dollars on a team with those odds??? lol

who the hell puts 1000 dollars on a team with those odds???

Winners

I believe that was the odds when they

were 6-6.

winners

Frank Rosenthal

lol I guess

Him and that guy who bet on the Cards 10 games out

Maybe your bosses friend realized the Giants were banged up on the DL early on, and knew they had a chance once healthy, and once the OL had time to gel.

Speaking of bets, Bobby. Like taking candy from a baby.

.5 points screwed me, not cool

someone needs to find this person so we can utilize their time machine

Don’t let Loney drive it.

“Man from future accidentally clones Hitler”

Gray’s Sports Almanac expired. So they couldn’t have used that.

Ok, someone let Doctor Who go to Vegas...

the Doctor would never do something so petty. I blame McFly

I think you forget that the Doctor gave Donna Noble a lottery ticket.

he did? totally forgot that

Refresh – I don’t normally take out full threads but I did in this case. Whatever the provocation if you feel the need to tell someone to f off and it is not done in a comical way, simply refrain, I don’t care who you are.

where's vero joe so it can be done in a funny way :)

I missed a doozy when I was off reading

what happened to your brain slug that makes you only read tbla?

Well I opened this thread too late apparently

Because whatever it was is already gone.

It was epic

Everyone who was here will never forget how great it was. You just had to be here for this once in a lifetime thing. I’m sure you’ll only wonder about it for the rest of your days :)

I’m more certain than ever that it totally sucked and people were being more stupid than usual.

That seems impossible, but possible.

McCovey Chronicles writes about the Dodgers’ offseason moves.

But if I’m ever frustrated with Brian Sabean, there’s an easy way to feel better: Remember that he somehow ctrl-c/ctrl-v’d his brain into another human being, and he sent that fellow on his merry way to build the roster of a divisional rival.

Good read. Thanks.

This is always a little sobering:

Acquired
Mark Ellis
Adam Kennedy
Jerry Hairston, Jr.
Aaron Harang
Chris Capuano
Todd Coffey

At least we have them for two years!

Juan Rivera looks better and better.

Sounds like an alcoholic’s mantra

The more Ned signs, the better they look.

They won't have Ned to make them feel better about things much longer...

Nor will their division rival have the McCourt saga to make them feel better…

So, enjoy it while it lasts, I guess? Especially since the Giants and Dodgers are probably roughly about equal this coming year.

But Grant is always good to read.

I think the Giants—on paper—are clearly better. Their rotation beats ours, their bullpen is potentially great, and they should be better offensively with Posey returning & Melky/Pagan. That being said, anything can happen.

Posey makes their lineup better in a snap, but their lineup was horrible and I don't see it as better than

than the Dodgers. Both are mediocre. The Giants have a better rotation at the moment though Dodgers have some wild cards in their minor league system there and I would be surprised if the comeback pitcher had a regression for them this year. Frankly, their bullpen is also due to regress, though yes on paper would rank it ahead of LA’s. Anyway, I guess my point is: a) the Giants are arguably better but it’s pretty marginal from top to bottom (last man), and regardless, they won’t have Ned to kick around past this season.

Perhaps he’ll come back to work for Sabean while waiting for his next GM gig. ;)

I meant better than they were last year but your points still stand.

And I’m not 100% sold on Posey. That was a brutal injury. Coming back all the way might take a bit. I think they need to get Belt in the lineup.

yeah that's another problem. Bochy and Sabean.

I mean, just start Belt already, then their lineup is good. instead they look for ways to force the vets into 1B and OF, which is to our benefit… hope Belt is dicked around again this year. ;)

(lineup is better, I mean, still not sure about "good")
Was a bit shocked by this

The Clippers have won three straight road games and face the Magic in Orlando tonight. If they win tonight, they will be within one game of the franchise record road winning streak:

5 games:
1973 Buffalo Braves (November of 1973-1974 season)

4 games:
2007 Clippers (streak ran from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 regular seasons)
2007 Clippers (in March)
2006 Clippers (February of 2005-2006 season)
1997 Clippers (April of 1996-1997 season)
1992 Clippers (March of 1991-1992 season)
1974 Buffalo Braves (January of 1973-1974 season)

Clippers

are one point favorites tonight (last I saw). I’m not really that surprised by this, but it just seems odd and out of place that this is the case. #NotYourMomsClippers

Apparently someone pulled the drama tag.

On a lighter note

Submitting the extended version of last night’s Avengers trailer for approval.

While that movie is not up my alley, I really enjoyed the trailer last night. Well done.

You’re more of a Battleship guy.

I’m more interested in Minesweeper, the Movie.

That was the Hurt Locker ;)

The Godfather is being played at theatres for 1 night around the country on March 1st. Godfather II on April 5th, I think.

I’m pretty pumped about paying to watch a movie I’ve seen at least 50 times on the big screen.

But what about Part III?!?

Guess it’s not making the cut

50 times on the big screen? dam….

Ill be seeing Phantom Menace for the 2nd time on the big screen very soon, but 1st time, in 3D!!!!

I’m not familiar with this Phantom Menace thingy

You should keep it that way.

shit, lightsabers in 3D, you must be crazy to miss that haha… im just assuming, I dont really know if thats the case.

Your argument is basically “high technology shiny objects!”

Not worth $30 to go with my girlfriend to that horrible movie.

nah, for me, the arguement is I never know when ill ever get a chance to see all 6 star wars movies on a big screen again, so Im just gonna do it lol…. I was kinda iffy on it, but whatever.

The three Star Wars movies won’t be out in 3D for a couple of years though.

So they arent doing all 6 in 3D?

There aren’t 6 Star Wars movies.

well what are they then? ok episodes? are all 6 episodes being shown in 3D??

Saying “I liked A New Hope, so I need to go see Episode I in 3D” is like saying “Rocky was awesome, I’m going to go reenact Rocky V.”

oh ok, I got you. Well, Episode 1 is my least favorite of whatever were calling them, but if im going to see any of them in 3D, I might as well see all 6, or 3, or whatever it is…. Once im in a series, I see everything. Ill be seeing the new American Pie movie too, American Reunion.

I think he's saying he doesn't like the 3 prequels

Who’s on first?

Nah, 50 times at home.

Gonna be 1 at the big screen.

My bad

good call

seen it a bunch but never on big screen.

I rode my bike

out to Pasadena to see it. I think I was 15 or 16 and didn’t have a driver’s license yet.

It was released the year I was born. I swear that year might have been America’s cultural peak.

Saw Godfather I & II back to back on the big screen back in college. Repertory houses schedule it all the time.

That said, the print was old/ugly. A bit red and faded black. This will look top-notch.

I will watch this on the big screen.

I remember renting it on VHS

20 or so years ago and it was unwatchable it was so dark. A new digital print would be nice to watch

There are several movies that if they came back to theaters i'd go see

Like Superbad, Anchorman and the Departed.

I watched today

Looks great

Yeah, Hulk looks amazing.

Filmed in Albuquerque!

One of my friends did a few days of extra work on it.

I did too, here in Ohio. It was awesome!

Time to make a uniform robe with “Rangers” across the front. Joe Beimel signed a minor league deal with Texas. So did Conor Jackson.

A couple of potentially nice pieces. Texas even does minor-league deal/NRIs better than every one else.

Conor Jackson has been really frickin bad since he got malaria or whatever.

I guess it has been more than three years now. Still a very low-risk signing for a guy who could be able to still hit.

I miss Troy. Just glad he was from West Virgina, but he would’ve made an interesting addition to the blogger tournament if he lived out here.

Kuo

I think it was Jack Z. who originally discovered Kuo for the Dodgers.

Josie

You’re clearly a big Joss Whedon fan, right? Have you caught the preview for some horror movie in the woods with Chris Hemmsworth and like no one else I’ve ever seen? I don’t know what to make of it, because I like Chris, and Joss’ work is growing on me, but the movie still looks kinda bad, lol.

it was made like three years ago, but it’s been sitting in the can waiting for release. I can assure you, it’s probably going to be pretty good. Don’t judge it by the preview.

I dont know, if its been sitting in the can, doesnt that probably mean it isnt that good? But im down for horror movies so i’ll still be interested.

the problem was MGM went broke.

That long?

I really like Chris Hemmsworth after his role on Star Trek and never seeing him any time before or after that in anything (I need to see Thor…), so that and the director are what make me want to see it.

I’m late to the party on movie talk but I wanted to break off my 2 cents.

I watched The Grey the other night.

Most people say it’s alright and hate the ending.

I loved it.

That’s all

My movie talk is I rewatched a personal favorite movie of mine: Flirting with Disaster (Ben Stiller, Tea Leonei). I swear that is a great comedy.

I’ve never seen it.

But I like Ben Stiller.

I’m gonna check it out.

yes

i remember watching that movie at 2am one college night in cambridge. surprised i stayed awake and loved it so much

LA Galaxy news from The Onion:

At a press conference Monday, Everton and Los Angeles Galaxy forward Landon Donovan announced his signing of a $2-Per-Goal contract with his grandparents Frank and Dianne Donovan—a full 100 percent raise from his previous agreement.

That may be the most complimentary thing The Onion has ever said about soccer.

in other news, Andre Ethier told he can’t go outside and play baseball until he finishes his homework.

Come on Onion, try a bit harder

Trying harder may have nothing to do with it. Innate sense of humor may have everything to do with it!

These are disgusting

First bag of Doritos that I’ve actively hated.

I want to follow you around for a day.

you can be his official Dorito duster

If you dusted a dorito, wouldn’t it just be a chip

I meant dusting the dorito dust off him

ewwww

you make me laugh, very good : )

He doesn’t really exist

They remind me of Takis.

They had a gross lime flavor a couple years back. Fake lime always tastes like dish soap smells.

Should be

Doritos Assflame amirite?

I just showed a friend at work Wayne (Mariner fan) the Kuo bat flip for the first time, always love seeing people’s reaction to it, haha.

!

Blake DeWitt DFA’d.

Available for the next 2 years!

Too bad Ned hates him

What makes you say that?

The government told me

WAT

OMG MUST HAVE

It doesn’t really matter since he’s signed for 1.1 million but it’s kinda weird they did this after settling his arb case.

Maybe they thought he had trade value but were mistaken.

Russ Mitchell too, per Rosenthal

I'd replace Mitchell with a Blake DW in a second!

Dam, alleged child molesting janitor at my kids school in Chatsworth, wtf is going on in these schools?

I’m homeschooling my kid

Ok if you don’t want your kid to have social skills.

I had people get angry with me in high school

because I didn’t assume kids who where home schooled where slow.

yeah little league is totally not a thing

The home-schooled kids in little league get picked on because they’re weird and don’t have social skills.

c'mon dude

You were in the HGM. School is no guarantee for social skills

(raises hand)

Excuse me, I still don’t have any social skills. Also: women and children terrify me.

Yeah, I’m extremely awkward and I went to public schools.

I got all my social skills by talking to drunks at a pizzeria.

I have excellent social skills. That’s why the only place I talk to people is on the internet!

I’m actually a 12 year old girl.

Things just got creepy. Like Chris’ kids’ elementary school creepy.

Psssssssssssssst: things got creepy a long time ago.

Point taken.

Homeschooling for me

would’ve been Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms

So it was a complete success then?

What if your kid doesn't like sports

yeah, youth theater totally isn’t a thing

what if your kid isn't into youth theater?

The six-year old’s response. Why? Why? Why? Why?

There are a myriad of activities available for children to interact with other children. The main problem is getting home-schooled children into opportunities to interact with other children without their parents around to run things and control all situations.

women just aren't getting along and vice versa with Nolander today :P

They are hiring perverts

YIKES

No offense to Matt, but I’m incredibly leery of male elementary school teachers.

What this country needs are more male elementary school teachers.

what this country needs is for the hysteria to end

men shouldn’t have to be so afraid of people thinking they are pedos just because they spend any time around kids.

My dad told me that he lived in constant fear of being accused of something when he was my soccer coach. Even though he obviously didn’t do anything untoward.

He made sure that there was always another parent on hand at soccer practices, etc.

OK children

today we are going to practice activities without the use of our hands.

I coach a soccer team

of 6,7 and 8 year old kids (AYSO). We have to take what is called “Safe Haven” training. Basically, it tells you some of the appropriate and inappropriate behavious around kids. Of course not the obvious ones like molesting, but the ones like what is the appropriate way to touch a kid (ie – high fives, pats on the back), what to do if a kid hugs you, all the wierd things that you probably haven’t thought of. We are taught to never be alone with the kids. For a male coach like myself, to always have one of the female mothers at all practices etc… It doesn’t gaurantee filtering out the molestors, but it does help with the grey line stuff and covers your ass and AYSO’s ass for lawsuits a little bit.

Im leery of teachers in general… Do they not drug test? I know 2 teachers personally that smoke weed and drink, right now, and besides that, I always felt why would you want to be a teacher? They got shit on when I was a kid. Dealing with 1 kid is rough enough, let alone 30-50 of them. It must be the summer vacation, thats all I cant think of.

You just get more amazing by the minute.

WTF

is wrong with a little hippie lettuce and booze? Sheesh.

Nothing wrong with it to me, im just sayin though.

This should continue to be good. I, for one, am setting up a lawn chair and popping some popcorn.

In the meantime, Chris, please tell us: what exactly are you “just sayin?” That schoolteachers should neither drink nor smoke pot?

Oh, look, my popcorn’s done. I’ll take my answer off the air.

I think Chris is saying that he himself doesn't feel qualified to be a teacher

and thinks its a really difficult and thankless job. Thank goodness there are people willing to do it, because I know I’m not.

Im just saying, around Jr high, and into highschool, the lack of respect teachers got from some students, and the things those students said to teachers, made me personally never want to be a teacher, and I was a straight edge kid back then, until I got crupted by the dark side of the force (women, drugs, alcohol) haha

believe it or not

my students respect me.

but thats because i demand it.

and respect them.

Thats exactly what im saying.

I was a teenage parent

so I was always on the look out for my son’s teachers whenever I’d be out at the bars or clubs, especially the young attractive ones.

Do they not drug test?

No

He’s fairly irked now, folks.

I teach high school. Male elementary teachers on the whole are fantastic people and I hope that my sons will be blessed enough to have some as role models.

Yeah… it’s always a bad seed that ruins the bunch.

I thought this was great

from McCovey Chronicles:

who is that?

Eh-you-hen-ee-o

Velez

my bad, should have known

No you shouldn’t

He looks so funny with a bat in his hand

You only recognize guys who get hits for the Dodgers

yep, I’ll always remember Russ Mitchell for that HR he hit in Chicago, even if he didnt do much else.

Didn't he get signed by the Cardinals as a minor league NRI?

Anyway, thankfully not our problem again this year.

I hated this marketing campaign.

And here it is
Ken Rosenthal
#Dodgers have designated IF Russ Mitchell for assignment, presumably to clear a roster spot for Coffey. #MLB

Easy money. I should’ve bought a ticket.

NOOOOO… I mean, okay.

Oh well

I picked a plethora of previews of players who may be gone by time their preview will need to post

nice alliteration

Tron lives to see Spring Training

Designate Tron and sign Dewitt

You don’t think DeWitt will just clear waivers anyway?

Or can he still be outrighted to the minors (in the Cubs system) if he does? Actually, this is probably true.

Someone could use him, he’ll get claimed.

You know what, the Dodgers don’t have anybody who can play 2nd and 3rd but not short. Maybe the Dodgers should pick him up.

more minor league IF depth would be good, at the least

as we learned from seeing guys like Eugenio Velez waste roster space.

Does he have options remaining?

I thought he had one, but could be wrong. Where to look it up?

If a man has no options but no one will claim him does he really not have options?

This is Dylanesque.

Reg spits hot fire

I’m sad that there were no major league players with the name “tree” according to Baseball Reference.

What is the sound of Onan clapping?

If it's in a forest?

We will have have the Santos Game

You would have a hard time convincing me that Juan Uribe would post a higher OPS+ then Blake DeWitt this year.

When I was told about OPS, I was told 800 or above is a good OPS for the most part, give or take depending on position… Now all I hear is OPS+, and I just want to know what is pretty much considered a good OPS+ in general??

100 is average

anything higher is above average, anything lower is below average.

I would rather have DeWitt on the roster than Uribe.

I think you guys will be surprised this year...

Uribe won’t suck. I’d rather have BDW back also but don’t know if he’s really better than Uribe. Isn’t Uribe at least a better field, if nothing else?

I agree with you. At a minimum, Uribe is a better infielder at 2B and SS. At worst Uribe is a wash with BDW at third and is probably better.

Who really cares about his defense at 2nd/SS since for us going forward he’s a 3rd baseman?

Then, is he better defensively at 3rd than BDW?

I think he still is. Though I suppose it’s closer. Again, I guess it’s moot since DeWitt won’t be on our team competing with Uribe, but since it was brought up…)

At any rate, it doesn’t seem like Cubs fans really miss BDW all that much and while I like the guy I can’t really imagine him outslugging Uribe this season, though the latter’s OBP will continue to leave much to be desired. /cue Emo Uribe pic

I love Chris Paul

http://www.clipsnation.com/2012/2/6/2774489/los-angeles-clippers-at-orlando-magic-game-preview#storyjump

When Chris Paul first heard about the Clippers’ long losing streak in Utah, he went to Ralph Lawler to find out if it was true. Paul vowed to help end that streak (which he did) and then he asked Ralph to inform him whenever the Clippers were up against history in a game. Well, the Clippers nine game losing streak against Orlando is their longest active losing streak against any team.

I love that he went to Lawler for that.

I’m going to pretend it is Jerry “The King” Lawler and not Ralph Lawler.

The real reason Paul missed five games was not a left hamstring strain but rather injuries from taking a chair to the back.

Memphis Fireball to the face.

he says los Anghellleeeeze

as a schtick right?

Bourjos for Lannan

WTF?

This didn’t actually happen did it?

No, I don't think so

I haven’t been around a computer for a while and thats the first thing I saw on Fangraphs

WAT?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bourjos-for-lannan-surely-you-jest/

Lannan and Strawman for Bourjos and Toto
There might be industry speculation about that kind of swap, but it’s not speculation that should be taken overly seriously.

Still gonna write 1200 words about it.

You are the Logan Morrison of TBLA.

I can't stop giggling

Hey that dude on the rope though was pretty cool I thought, that cant be easy.

As goofy as that was (especially wardrobe), I still wish halftime show was more

like this.

(check out the .gifs at the bottom)

Is that from Star Wars 3D?

Godfather 3: The Godfathering.

I’m getting fairly irked at the Kuo contract.

Phil is getting upset?

He’s about to delete the whole Kuo thread

Quick, somebody find the meercat and ask it how it’s feeling!

Now that’s creepy.

Man, if I had a nickel………………

don't fairly irk him

You wouldn’t like him when he’s fairly irked

and the people all said siddown,
Siddown you’re irkin the ’Cat

Kuo got Blaked (erased from our 2012 plans for no stated reason).

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