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2012 NL West Offseason Review: San Diego Padres

Our final road stop on the National League West offseason review tour brings us to the San Diego Padres. Here is a look at the offseason for the rivals down south, where the Dodgers will open their regular season on April 5.

Five Questions

San Diego Padres
2011 Record: 71-91
Division Finish:
Fifth Place, 23 GB
2012 at Dodger Stadium:
Apr 13-15, Jul 13-15, Sep 3-5
2012 Dodgers at Petco Park: Apr 5-8, May 16-17, Sep 25-27
SB Nation coverage: Gaslamp Ball

1) Who 'won' the Mat Latos trade?

At first glance, it seems like the Padres got the better end of the deal just by sheer volume, as they got catcher Yasmani Grandal, first baseman Yonder Alonso, starting pitcher Edinson Volquez, and right-handed pitcher Brad Boxberger from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for their ace.

The Padres picked up three of the Reds' top 10 prospects (per Baseball America) and two top-100 guys in Alonso and Grandal. Restocking the farm system with deals like these helped Keith Law of ESPN rank the Padres' farm system as the best in MLB.

But what San Diego gave up is a pitcher who just turned 24 with 31 starts in each of the last two seasons and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than three-to-one. Latos isn't even eligible for salary arbitration until next season.

It seems both teams got what they wanted out of the transaction, as Cincinnati got a cost-controlled front-of-the-rotation starter during their current window of contention in the National League Central, while San Diego added to the foundation of a team that could be pretty good in a year or two.

2) Will Carlos Quentin be healthy enough to matter for the Padres?

The outfielder was one of the favorites for the American League MVP while with the Chicago White Sox in 2008 before missing the final month of the season. In the three years since, Quentin has been a productive hitter, hitting .245/.336/.479 for Chicago, but he has averaged just 116 games per season during the last three campaigns, never playing in more than 131 games in a season during his career.

But the Padres gave up only a pair of lightly regarded pitchers to nab Quentin from the White Sox, so there is minimal risk for San Diego, outside his $7 million salary. San Diego is banking on Quentin hitting well enough and staying healthy enough to either help them somehow contend or to increase his trade value come June or July.

Maybe to stay healthy, Quentin could stop getting hit by so many pitches. Over the last four seasons, Quentin has been plunked 78 times, second most in MLB (behind Chase Utley's 83) and 26 more than the third-most HBP during that span.

Trivial Padres Fact:
Orlando-hudson-padres-dodger-stadium-getty_medium
Other than four career games at designated hitter, Orlando Hudson has never played any other position but second base in his 10 years in the big leagues.

3) How will Mike Adams continue to help the Padres, even though he's in Texas?

The Padres picked up Adams nine days before his 28th birthday in 2006, for pitcher Brian Sikorski. In 2008 Adams became a fixture in the San Diego bullpen, and for three and a half years was awesome, with a 1.66 ERA, 241 strikeouts and 59 walks in 217 innings.

But the Padres sent Adams to the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline last year, picking up left-handed pitcher Robbie Erlin and right-hander Joseph Weiland. Erlin put up a 3.50 ERA with a strikeout per inning in 17 games at Double A last year at age 20, while Weiland had a 1.80 ERA in 12 Double A starts with 54 strikeouts in 70 innings, at age 21.

Both pitchers will be in the San Diego starting rotation sooner rather than later, and Corey Brock of MLB.com speculated that at least Weiland, if not both, will end 2012 starting games at Petco Park.

4) How much will it cost to go see the Dodgers play at Petco Park?

That could depend on several factors.

The Padres have partnered up with Texas software company Qcue to offer dynamic ticket pricing this season for single-game tickets. "By using advanced computer programming, dynamic pricing will give the team the ability to adjust ticket costs higher or lower based on market demand and such factors as pitching matchups, the team's performance, weather and potential milestones," wrote Corey Brock of MLB.com.

Dynamic ticket pricing is also being implemented in St. Louis, San Francisco, Oakland, Minnesota, Seattle, and Pittsburgh in MLB this season.

5) What about Micah Owings?

I'm glad you asked. The Padres signed the former Diamondbacks pitcher/hitter to a $1 million contract, and Owings is expected to compete for a spot in the starting rotation. He will also get a chance to improve on his standing as the 27th-highest active slugging percentage (.507) among all major leaguers with at least 200 career plate appearances.

Offseason Moves

Padres Trades, Etc. This Winter
Team Traded Acquired
Athletics Cedric Hunter of (claimed off waivers by Oakland)
Athletics Evan Scribner rhp (claimed off waivers by Oakland)
Marlins Wade LeBlanc lhp John Baker c
Rockies Nick Schmidt lhp Huston Street rhp
$500,000
Indians Aaron Cunningham of Cory Burns of
Reds Mat Latos rhp Edinson Volquez rhp
Yonder Alonso 1b
Yasmani Grandal c
Brad Boxberger rhp
Rangers Luis Martinez c Ryan Kelly rhp
White Sox Simon Castro rhp
Pedro Hernandez lhp
Carlos Quentin of
Cubs Anthony Rizzo 1b
Zach Cates rhp
Andrew Cashner rhp
Kyung-Min Na of

In addition to the $500,000 sent to San Diego in the trade for Street, Colorado is on the hook for the $500,000 buyout should the Padres decide to decline the closer's $9 million club option for 2013.

Padres Contracts Signed This Winter
Pos Player Type Total Contract 2012 Salary
OF Mark Kotsay FA 1-year, $1.25m $1,250,000
P/DH Micah Owings FA 1-year, $1m $1,000,000
OF Carlos Quentin Arb 1-year, $7.025m $7,025,000
3B Chase Headley Arb 1-year, $3.425m $3,425,000
SP Tim Stauffer Arb 1-year, $3.2m $3,200,000
SP Clayton Richard Arb 1-year, $2.705m $2,705,000
SP Edinson Volquez Arb 1-year, $2.2375m $2,237,500
SP Dustin Moseley Arb 1-year, $2.0125m $2,012,500
C Nick Hundley Arb 1-year, $2m $2,000,000
RP Luke Gregerson Arb 1-year, $1.55m $1,550,000
OF Will Venable Arb 1-year, $1.475m $1,475,000
OF Chris Denorfia
Arb 1-year, $1.165m $1,165,000
C John Baker
Arb 1-year, $750k $750,000
RP Joe Thatcher
Arb 1-year, $700k $700,000

The Padres had a whopping 12 players eligible for salary arbitration, and got them all signed by the end of January. San Diego also signed pitcher Jeff Suppan and outfielder Jeremy Hermida, among others, to minor-league contracts.

Star-divide

Padres Players Lost
Pos Player New Team
CL Heath Bell Marlins
SP Aaron Harang Dodgers
RP Chad Qualls Phillies
1B Brad Hawpe Rangers*
C Rob Johnson Mets*
IF Alberto Gonzalez Rangers*
RP Jeff Fulchino Nationals*
*Minor league deal

Here's my guess as to the Padres' 25-man roster, with a few assumptions mixed in:

2012 Padres Under Contract
Pos Player 2012 Age* 2012 Salary
C Nick Hundley 28 $2,000,000
1B Yonder Alonso 25 $1,000,000
2B Orlando Hudson 34 $5,500,000
3B Chase Headley 28 $3,475,000
SS Jason Bartlett 32 $5,500,000
LF Carlos Quentin 29 $7,025,000
CF Cameron Maybin 25 team control
RF Will Venable
29 $1,475,000
OF Mark Kotsay 36 $1,250,000
IF Andy Parrino 26 team control
OF Chris Denorfia 31 $1,165,000
1B Jesus Guzman 28 team control
C John Baker 31 $750,000
SP Tim Stauffer 30 $3,200,000
SP Edinson Volquez 28 $2,237,500
SP Clayton Richard 28 $2,705,000
SP Cory Luebke 27 team control
SP Dustin Moseley 30 $2,012,500
CL Huston Street 28 $7,000,000
RHP Luke Gregerson 28 $1,550,000
RHP Ernesto Frieri 26 team control
LHP Joe Thatcher 30 $700,000
LHP Josh Spence
24 team control
RHP Micah Owings 29 $1,000,000
RHP Andrew Cashner 25 team control
Totals (18 players)
$49,545,000
*Age as of June 30, 2012

Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com and Cot's Baseball Contracts. Orlando Hudson photo courtesy of Getty Images.

0 recs  |  489 comments

Comments

That’s a real bad rotation.

Indeed

Clearly they are looking beyond 2012.

I don’t see how they are bad.

They don’t have anyone great, but do they have anyone bad?
Stauffer is not bad
Luebke is certainly not bad
Richard is not bad
Volquez could easily bounceback in Petco
Moesely – okay he’s a fifth starter

With Erlin, Weiland, Cashner , and even Casey Kelly ready to help in 2012.

Maybe Cashner remains in the bullpen.

Still think the Padres will be the most underrated team in baseball this year.

It’s not the Orioles or anything but between Petco and that defense an average pitcher should have something like a 3.5 ERA. No one except maybe Volquez is aggressively bad but none of them are good.

They seem average to me.

You know I think I replace Stauffer with Tim Redding in my mind and that doesn’t help.

Still three low ceiling maybe average guys, a huge wild card like Volquez and Moseley isn’t a good rotation.

if the consensus is that the Padres will win 60 games this year, then yes the Padres may be one of the most underrated teams in baseball this year. What do you put their over/under wins at?

I’ll take the over from whatever your sims or Vegas puts it at

CAIRO puts them ahead of the Dodgers if you really believe.

I saw her face … but still not a believer.

Not contenders but not doormats. They may finish last but I don’t think there will be a huge spread between last and fourth.

Yeah, that’s usually the case.

I like it better than the Rockies’.

I am curious which Padre reclamation guy becomes a solid bullpen contributor this year. Every year it is someone. When you can flip a Mike Adams for two rotation pieces even if they are not front of the line pitchers you are doing something right.

Does make you gag when the highest paid player is a relief pitcher

I got a feeling that Hundley and Headley will be very popular around the trade deadline. With their depth at third and catcher, they could continue to reload what is already a strong farm system.

1st base platoon of Guzman/ Alonzo could be quite effective
Headley is now one of the better 3rd baseman in the NL
Hundley quietly had a solid year
Maybin may be coming on, he’s always had the same skill set as McCutcheon.
Even in the minor Quentin lead the league in getting hit. It was always a huge part of his OBP. Ron Hunt was his little league coach

As DodgerIsland says, I expect Hundley to be attractive trade bait this summer.

Agreed

They are the most balanced team in the division. There are teams with stronger uhhh strengths, but they have the fewest holes.

Anyone with Insider know how we fared in KLaw’s top 100?

lee 41

webster 61
eovaldi 79

Yet he has us 12 based primarily on our pitching. Interesting.

Wow, way higher on Webster than anyone else and I actually agree. Goes a long way to explaining the 12th place rank.

HQ

Lee – 55
Webster – 82
Eovaldi – 94

Padres have six in HQ’s top 100

At least I’m not alone on the Webster Wagon.

seemed plenty of TBLA voters liked Webby

After that DeJon piece, if he’s touching mid-to-high 90s with a plus-plus changeup, yes please.

and he has trout 1 harper 2 fuck i hope trout is not going to be that good.

Lot of smart people saying like Trout more than Harper and they think Harper is gonna be a beast. Sadly he is that damn good.

In ten years the Stadium will be referred to as the Trout Farm

i will still call it “the place the rams played”

because he's an Angel?

Or you just want Harper to be better?

Not sure if previously mentioned somewhere but

Law ranked Scott Barlow #10 on the Dodgers top 10 list. Pederson was the only hitter at #8. Also had Sanchez at #6 ahead of Withrow (which seems dumb to me, but whatever).

Starting to get interested in this Barlow fellow

you got me interested in Bawcom, and why a guy with those three pitches couldn’t be a starter.

I didn’t mention Barlow in my story, but De Jon brought him up without me asking about him.

"Dynamic ticket pricing"

We should get comfortable with the concept – it’s the ultimate blend of capitalism and computer technology.

At least it’s a better solution than “if you want Yankees tickets, you gotta buy tickets to eight more games”

“I’d hate to think of something bad happening, ya know?”

Definitely – not necessarily a bad thing. When plenty of tickets are available, prices will be less. You’ll feel gouged on big games, though. That’s capitalism!

It’s not “gouging” if the demand is there.

Better than “Dynamic Dodger Dog Pricing”. That would be horrible. “Hey, the weather’s great, so your Dodger dog cost 50 cents more!”

You think they sell more dodger dogs on day games or night games?

Probably day games, but if I were to get a hot dog, it’d be a night game where I didn’t eat before the game.

Yeah I’d do the same. Unless I hadn’t brought a lunch along.

Who was it again last season who walked 8 Dodgers in under two innings?
On the Pads?
Ah right Stauffer never mind

Stauffer, Aug 30th – six in the 2nd

Thanks

He walked seven, it is the only time in his career he has walked more then 5. In his career he has only walked fiver or more three times, it was very out of character.

Billingsley has done it 16 times. He has also walked 7 once, but it took him 5 innings

I remember that game. Stauffer was pissed at the home plate umpire, thought he was getting squeezed. But I don’t know, you’d think after walk number four or so you might make an adjustment and not keep trying to hit the same spot that keeps getting called a ball.

That was hilarious to watch on CBS Sportscenter, because you could look at what people were saying and they were either laughing their heads off or just getting annoyed.

Oops he only walked 7 over all.

On this day 20 years ago

Magic came out of retirement to play in the all-star game

Wonder if Eric wrote the shit out of this on SBNation LA:)

I am going to for the All-Star Game week

My daily sports facts calendar sitting on my desk is easier to notice

We might have mentioned it yesterday with tears in our eyes

what was yesterdays

2/8/1942, a baseball game between major leaguers and convicts at Folsom Prison is stopped when two prisoners serving life sentences escape. Major leaguers were winning 24-5, they caught the escaped prisoners a few hours later.

Haha, that is great

Especially since it reads like the prisoners were caught by the major leaguers. :)

the major leaguers caught the prisoners?

No, the guards did.

they prolly beat the shit out of those prisoners

Ugueth Urbina didn’t have a good game pitching, I see.

Tim Hardaway handled his demotion from the starting lineup like a champ.

and proceeded to drop the illest ball fake ever on poor Spree

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeqkGwnHqrQ

…four years later.

We are talking about the greatest All-Star Game ever, in any sport. 1992.

Yet another Dick Enberg game. Oh my.

So the year before last I was at AT&T Park and watching a Dodgers-Giants game, and so we figured, “Well, maybe what they’re calling ’Giant’s Dogs’ are just Dodger Dogs with the wrong name”, so we got some. They were just plain hot dogs. Pitiful.

I was so busy trying to figure out why they called their smaller hot dogs Giant Dogs

that when I got to the front I accidentally asked for a dodger dog. While wearing a dodger shirt and cap… at a cubs giants game.

When we asked for a Dodger Dog they just laughed and said, "Sorr, no, we don’t have those.

I live near SF and they sell packs of 18 frozen Dodger Dogs. It’s brilliant.

can’t beat that meat

In Pony League

the best team’s sponsor was was a meta-packing org. called King Meat.

So every opposing team used to chant “Beat the Meat” in the dugout

Where the Elite Meet to Beat Their Meat. /groening

I got a t shirt froma thrift shirt for a little league team that I still don’t know if it is real.

It was for J&B Sanitation: #1 at a #2 Job

In my youth

Nothing will ever top “Liquor in the Front . . .”

there was a special on PBS last night, very interesting, about African lions. One of the segments was analyzing big cat poop vs their prey to see how much energy is actually absorbed. Apparently herbivores only absorb like 40% of the energy in their food, and have these labyrinthian guts to perform the task. But the Lions and Tigers absorb 70% and have uncomplex digestive systems. This is why big cats are so lean, and also the theory behind Atkins. The problem is the human digestive system needs that indigestible food

I’m not an expert but our intestines seem a bit labryinthian

which is why we need indigestible food. Omnivores need fiber!

unicomplex digestive systems

I read this as unicomplex, and it sounded awesome.

most stomachs want Dodger Dogs at DS, my stomach wants readable number fonts

I want uncarbonated orange drink back.

But the Lions and Tigers absorb 70%

Something in the water in Detroit?

Lions...that reminds me of something...oh yeah, this is it :)

lion sex lasts 30 seconds, so a dominant male will have sex with as many partners as he can when the females are in estrus. The more testosterone a male has, the darker his mane, the more dominant he is perceived. The reason dominance is so important to females, is because rival males committing infanticide is very common, they need a mate who will protect his cubs.

Which might help explain how maneless males often end up becoming maneaters

Oates had a hell of a mane.

Don't sell Hall's mane short!

I can’t go for that.

No can do

These statements should be private, eyes-only
FWIW

The new Sports Weekly [I know] has their yearly 100 Names to Know for 2012. We placed four: Dee, Eovaldi, Fedex, & Sellers. They appear to be higher on Sellers than we are.

Sellers in the top 100? Hmm, I wonder if that’s a sign? Maybe?

I’d like for him to make the team. We could use someone with SS skills and he might add a little excitement in the occasional spot start.

I’d rather watch Peter Sellers

What are the odds that Dee Gordon starts every game that he’s healthy?

I would bet on it

I hope not. I think with his frame he’s going to need some breaks along the way.

I do realize Hairston is probably adequate to play SS ocassionally. Come to think of it, I probably don’t care if he makes the team. I do agree that I’d rather have Sands in AAA than riding the bench.

I think the Dodgers need a hitter of some sort for that final bench spot (or if it’s Sands, he would likely start more with Rivera sliding to more of a reserve role).

I believe Adam Kennedy is a backup first baseman in the same way Jay Gibbons is a semi-regular left fielder.

If Sands makes the team, Loney and Ethier would never have to face lefty’s.

Thank goodness we have an experienced manager to navigate these difficult waters :)

Makes sense. Sands winning the LF job with Rivera becoming our Saenz would make me happy. I just see Rivera as our starting LF at this point.

I still think there is a good chance that Sands is our starting LF. The coaching staff has at least recognized our deficiency against LH pitching and they will deploy Rivera in the role that he is best suited for, lefty masher playing for both Loney and Ethier.

I have no reason to believe that Ethier will be sitting much against LHP

I thought he sat a good amount last year. Maybe I am misremembering.

That said, he will sit less than Loney will against LHP.

He was also hurting a bit. And Rivera was doing decently.

When he was hurt, not sure how often he sat against LHP when he was “healthy”. I do think he’s on a shorter leash this year in relation to LHP. If he struggles early I would not be surprised to see him platooned quickly.

I think this applies to Loney as well. In fact, I could see almost but not quite a strict platoon for Loney from the start.

Platooning Loney increases the chances “Jim” will be the Loney on the field this season.

Can't wait for him or his agent to lash out about it

I’m thinking that Hairston ends up playing a LOT this season. I predict a Carrol-esque year from him.

We’ve made so many moves I can’t tell you right now what the infield depth chart looks like.

Anybody want to take a stab at it?

Seems easy enough
1st – Loney / Rivera
2nd – Ellis / Kennedy/Hairston
SS – Gordon/Hairston
3rd – Uribe / Hairston / Kennedy

Yeah

Im wondering more about RF and LF

Gwynn and Ethier.

Gwynn when Rivera isn’t playing.

Hairston could end up saving Ned from himself. It took him three tries but on the 3rd try he got it right.

In that case, I think Hairston will get plenty of PT, just at 2nd and 3rd. I do think Donny will ride Gordon hard.

Yes, I would not be surprised to see Hairston get 350 at bats.

And Kennedy to become our main LH PH.

I’m not excited by this.

Chicken Pecota

Boy is there a lot of math in this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15992

Really don’t like that model. It will probably work out to be better in the average case but for guys that collapse or breakout it can look really ugly, and those collapse/breakout candidates are what people are really looking for in a projection system, not predicting Kurt Suzuki will have the same year he usually does.

PECOTA

Broken for two years in a row now.

If I used the weighting system they used on their projections for my simulator, I’d get mauled by Vegas. Mauled I’m telling you. They are going to miss the improvements/unimprovements in both hitters and pitchers.

Evidently there was a reason why BP kept all their equations from the public. I don’t know squat about what they are doing but if you and Reg both say bullshit then I tend to side on the side of bullshit.

Some Projections

Uribe: .241/.293/.385
Ellis: .251/.307/.359
Rivera: .252/.307/.393
Hairston: .248/.304/.352
Loney: .278/.338/.404

Fuck, they even have Kemp at .288/.348/.480.

Hehe.

Yeah right.

That is about in line with his 2009 season. Seems reasonable. Until he proves otherwise 2011 is a huge outlier to his career.

HQ has a more optimistic outlook

and you all know how much I rely on them:)

From The Baseball Forecaster:
Traded in rock star girlfriend for focus and fantasy MVP award. (Would YOU do that? Discuss.) Improved pitch selection produced more loft and unlocked fearsome power. SB% rebounded and SBO should maintain SB floor. Ct% and hr/f say some regression is likely, but other BPIs in good shape. At 27, he’s dynasty gold.

893 OPS

And that’s why I hate it. Kemp’s insane breakout season means only slightly more than 2010. Uribe and Ellis totally falling to pieces is out weighted by their decent seasons in 09 and 10.

For players in the middle of a consistent career, yeah this is probably a much better method but now it really can’t capture older guys having their careers come to a crashing halt or young guys breaking out.

Also might be off because their comparables seem completely broken. Someone named Oscar Tavarez ended up with Al Kaline, Ken Griffey Jr and Justin Upton as his comps.

Yes

Am I imagining Jerry Sands ending up with Barry as one of his comps?

Nope

His comps were Barry Bonds, Boog Powell, and Ryan Klesko

Unless they decided to make characters in your name the most important factor that’s just straight up broken.

I don’t know why I’m so fixated on handedness but I hate comps where they do not match.

Stop comping Escobar to Gordon then!

That is what is holding Alcides back

It really is. His right-handedness makes him have to sit back in the box and try to rip the ball, whereas Dee can just slap it all over the place. I know they have some stat similarities and play SS, but they are not really similar types of hitters in terms of style and approach.

Oh yeah, I forgot Godon: .259/.289/.318

Huge uptick in patience :)

I’ve been using Alcides Escobar as a comp for Gordon, they are close in Pecota.

That would suck

Not like Ozzie Smith was an offensive factor his first few years.

You didn’t just compare Dee Gordon with Ozzie Smith did you?

Go crazy, folks! Go crazy!

Yup, I went there

I think I started this like 2 years ago. Lots more similarities than one might think.

Yup, but I wonder how many fans today would wait for the percolation of Ozzie Smith.

"No really? I thought I could do better!"


“It’s just….. there aren’t enough fans!”

The current Dodgers starting lineup is projected to total 11.6 WARP

The five starting pitchers total 10.0 WARP.

It projects the starting five to make 146 starts, none fewer than 28.

Can’t decide if it is a good or bad thing if Capang make 28 starts each.

I think it’s good. The fact they’re also signed for 2013 is bad.

Is WARP using a different baseline or did they just predict that we’d win like 62 games?

I didn’t total up the bench and bullpen, but I can’t imagine it would be more than 5 WARP (Jansen is 1.6). Seems super low.

Those Kemp and Kershaw projection means 7 or 8 wins right off the top so that’s a start.

how much of that is just kemp?

Andre has an excellent projection

That is it.

Basically the offense would be Kemp / Andre and the six stooges

that is the cold reality anyways

nyuk nyuk nyuk

Kemp is 4.1.
Kershaw is 4.4 on the pitching side.

Next best is Lilly at 2.6 and Ethier at 2.5

How does Ellis end up with a 307 obp

A.J. is at .243/.357/.307

That seems reasonable.

how accurate are these projection sites anyways?? The ones that project standings, did they get them all right last year?? the last 5 years??

Ask me when the fourth or fifth revision of Pecota comes out.

I mean, I assume they must be more accurate then not, since alot of you enjoy these sites. But just curious how accurate it is, or if its more for fun or what.

“Did they get everything right the past five years? No. Then this is all bullshit we should ignore”

haha no, but knowing how accurate they have been in the past will make me feel more, or less confident about the Dodgers. If they are very accurate, then I’ll know not to jump into this upcoming Dodger season heart first.

If its like 50% accurate, then I know good chance they could be wrong, and I can just assume they will be until proven otherwise.

We’ll have the player by player projections for a few different sources coming up soon.

Starting Monday!

These are the player profiles like from last year?

I dont think the purpose of these is to be Carnac the Magnificent, but rather engage in (and share) their process to try and understand the trends and develop tools and metrics to gauge them as best they can.

I’m just wondering what the Reds think of the Wins Over Replacement Player system. You know, WARP in Cincinnati . . .

The set up is what made it funny

If Loney OBPs .338 we’re in a world of hurt.

I'm thinking sub .450 Slugging and we're screwed

so we’re screwed

Bobbie Down: at the same time the most optimistic and most pessimistic commenter on TBLA

It’s a tough job to do, but someone’s gotta do it.

I’m very optimistic about Mr Jim Loney, I’m thinking .310/.375/.460 with 40 doubles and 15 HR.

And of course, the obligatory Tommy Blackjack tag

#batshitinsane

it's only BSI

If that’s his line by the ASB

For loney

It just may be BSI, haha.

@jay_jaffe

PECOTA is overly regressing your favorite player and also you want it to deliver you two ponies and a unicorn.

We all knew that Oil Can Boyd liked to party. But, man, did he like to party.

Appearing on WBZ NewsRadio to promote his forthcoming autobiography “They Call Me Oil Can: My Life in Baseball,” Boyd said of his cocaine use: "Oh yeah, at every ballpark. There wasn’t one ballpark that I probably didn’t stay up all night, until 4 or 5 in the morning, and the same thing is still in your system. It’s not like you have time to go do it while in the game, which I had done that.
,
“Some of the best games I’ve ever, ever pitched in the major leagues, I stayed up all night; I’d say two-thirds of them. If I had went to bed, I would have won 150 ballgames in the time span that I played. I feel like my career was cut short for a lot of reasons, but I wasn’t doing anything that hundreds of ballplayers weren’t doing at the time, because that’s how I learned it.”

First ballot Drug Hall of Famer.

Best 1/2 punch for Drugs

Oil Can/Dock Ellis?

James Loney talked to Dylan Hernandez about the November car accident and the Dodgers pursuit of Prince Fielder, but didn’t say much.

Asked what his reaction to that was, Loney said, “I didn’t have a reaction. Nobody really talked about it, the people I deal with. It is what it is. There’s something new in the news every day. You have to pick and choose what you see every day.”

Asked what he thought would have happened to him if the Dodgers had succeeded in signing Fielder, Loney replied, “I don’t know. We don’t know because it didn’t happen.”
Bad cutting on my part

In that first paragraph, the “that” refers to the Dodgers’ pursuit of Prince Fielder.

He’s also been quoting as saying something to the effect of, “Of course it would help our team he’s a great hitter.” Must’ve been feeling snippy with Dylan.

In honor of the death of their creator

on my desk this morning:


What are the friends names? I only know Lemonhead.

I always liked Lemonheads. The friends suck though.

Grapehead, Applehead, etc.

That’s not very clever. Must not be a Willy Wonka joint.

For the ladies

Matt Kemp workout video

(sorry Gary)

why sorry

that was sick

I love working out

and this video made me sad to be at my office today

I jumped up and ran over to watch it over his shoulder. He just now realized why you said sorry.

oh

i got you. she was standing right behind me watching it and I got the “can I do the Matt Kemp workout please?”

Oi

he's a good looking dude

and he’s super swole, but I’m seriously all about that workout…the wheelbarrow into PUSHUPS looks fucking brutal.

Dude, I totally want to do that workout.

it looks couples friendly

and pain. Lots of pain.

Any predictions Mr. Lang?

I predict that workout would make me barf

so hard

Its incredibly hard.

Call a doctor.

... How do you know its been 4 hours?
I was reading the Maddz workout list last week

and I kept reading.

10 pukes
20 vomits
30 barfs
etc…

Seriously though, I hope to have a daily workout routine once I hit Arizona.

Maddz and I will officially be in AZ from 3/9-3/18

I will be here during those dates

I will be writing material for other people’s future jokes during those dates

Beware the somethings of something.

you have not even been close into making it into my 10 minute act. I have way better stories on internet hookups

i more meant the thing i wrote about how people looked in spring training.

i more meant the thing i wrote about how people looked in spring training.

you were wrong on jansen but that is all.

i was right. he made an adjustment 1/3 of the season in.

i'm not going to do this right now

we need to be unified for saturday.

whatever happens on Saturday, we will have a lot more ammunition to make fun of each other

By the 3rd game we will be so lifeless out there I think we will see people falling on the base paths

Should be fun !

Optimistically that would mean we had been scoring mucho runs and are tired from running the base paths.

Pessimistcally that might mean our outfielders were dog ass tired from running down opposing gappers.

We can interchange our outfielder every two innings. We should be able to keep them fresh. It is only an hour of softball every two hours. You kids should be able to eat that up.

His peripherals were pretty conistent all year though

Though it’s pretty hard to do this analysis because relievers (particularly one who got injured) have a real sample size problem when looking at splits. That being said, his sample size for IP in March/April is as big as any other month and it doesn’t look like he was materially worse.

xFIP:
March/April: 2.84
May: 3.68
June: 2.78
July: 2.08
Aug: 3.44
Sep/Oct: <0.14>

He basically just had two bad appearances in April that everyone went batshit over.

Don’t think any one went batshit over. This is a reasonable group.

for the most part

some of the time

Take it to the guano thread.

Right. For comparision, during March/April he had an ERA of 7.43.

The 3rd game of the year (10-0 loss...of course I was there)

Jansen got wrecked. It was amazing how only one other time he really looked bad.

At the end of the year he saved Kershaw’s hide twice in the 8th inning with 2 on, what a beast.

Dee Gordon

is working out with him in that video too

The Orioles got kicked out of South Korea today, and it’s real funny. From Jon Bernhardt.

I just finished flipping out on Twitter so I’m not going to go through it again here, but basically in the last few months the Orioles have refused to make any moves on the major league level of any reasonable ambition or note, gutted their pro-scouting department and reassigned basically the entire unit to amateur scouting, and then proceeded to get themselves banned from the first market those scouts entered in any sort of force — and why? To sign a 17 year old with a mediocre fastball and a polished curveball. They basically just got banned from South Korea because they got caught trying to smuggle out a timebomb that’d already been ticking down for an hour
what rules/laws did the actually break?

Went to a high schooler, offered him a contract. All they had to do was ask the Korean Baseball League permission first.

Also the guy they signed is now banned from playing pro baseball in Korea.

Baltimore Orioles: Screwing up Baseball in Two Hemispheres Since 1998.

Sad, because checking out the 60 Orioles reminded me of just what an awesome franchise they were. At least we are getting rid of our owner, and if you think an owner with money is going to be great then just look at the Orioles. I feel for any franchise that has litigation lawyer as their owner.

I was actually bullish on their lineup a year ago but then someone (probably reg) reminded me they had no pitching.

All the kids had issues, but they all have skills. They might have made one of the better under reported signings of the season from Japan.

They also just signed Nick Johnson to a minor league contract. See what you can do when you don’t have any scouts

Yet they have about an 80% chance of finishing in last place and 95% chance of finishing in 4th/5th.

Yeah, we would too if we played in the AL East

Didn’t they sign two from Japan, Wada and someone else?

Yin Chen (a lefty with supposedly great stuff).

OTOH they signed a 17 year old who throws in the mid 80s and his best pitch is a curve ball.

I have zero faith in anyone the Orioles value the more than anyone.

Or the scouting reports from South Korea are bullshit, or their scouts noticed something in his delivery can easily be fixed.

If a 17 year olds best pitch is a curveball, he’s been throwing a curve ball from way to young of an age and his arm will explode.

Also until Korea stepped in their plan was to put him in full season ball. At 17.

You are relying on the baseball establishment who would want the Oriole plan to fail miserably for your information. They are the one’s linking this info. Color me skeptical.

It’s Duquette who said he wants to start a 17 year old in A ball.

I think that’s an excellent poing (re: curveballs) but isn’t that basically what the scouting report was on Gould coming out of high school?

Any number of BA reports will say “curve ball best pitch”. I’m guessing we should throw those out.

A year makes a huge difference.

to be fair, a lot of kids just kind of get it. on the third hand, all the guys i’ve seen whose best pitch in high school was a curveball at some point had shoulder tendonitis or shoulder/elbow surgery. so i’m not sure what i believe.

I didn’t look at Maury Brown’s arbitration database, but I wonder if a team has had more arb-eligible players than the 12 by the Padres this offseason.

Dodgers had nine a few years back.

Also if Kershaw had waited until next week to sign, I was going to write an article on the Dodgers history in arbitration hearings. I may still do it, but probably not.

What are you waitiNg for?

so give me something to believe.

Today may or may not be a big day in my life

Bosom shave?

Naked Bosom Shave™

You got my attention

You grabbed attention

Now when you don’t respond we will all be wondering, haha.

Classic meercat behavior.

You need me to read the lotto ticket you’ve got for verification?

To balance out the "too thin" Maria Menuonos

Here is a picture of someone who was left home alone, apparently with no food at all:

Apparently he is trying to star in a live-action version of Nightmare Before Christmas.

dam, and this fool is spankin Mila Kunis?

I was thinking the exact same thing. Mila Kunis should be commended for not being as shallow as… everyone else in the world?

It’s a turf war on a global scale.

It must blow chunks to peak at 8 years old

I’ll ask my brother Greg what it is like.

Well, better to peak at 8 then not peak at all…. He still made a shit load of money, not sure what he has of it left, but he is still famous atleast. He probably got molested.

Id rather be a member of the non famous middle America and not be raped by an adult…

He probably got molested.

wat

well, when Corey Haim died, Feldman came out and said alot of Haims addiction came from being molested as a kid coming up through the movie business, etc, and there are some studio big wigs that molest these star kids. They still exsist according to Feldman. So MAYBE it happened to Culkin, but im just throwing around accusations.

Either way, he made millions, he is famous, he got to be with Mila Kunis for 8 years, whatever happens from here on out, he’s lived a better life to this point then most ever live.

if those are the things that are most valuable to you

some people don’t care about being famous

oops, I mean unless bad stuff did happen to him as a kid, then thats fucked up.

thats just what people whom arent famous say.

Wealthy, sure. Famous, sounds like a hassle.

The Entertainment Industry is just teeming with unsavory characters in power.

He probably got molested.

I like how this is just added on after all of the positive stuff.

cocaine is a hell of a drug. His brother is hot though

His bro's been really good in quite a few indie films lately

The last film I saw him in, he was in a wheelchair and did not embarrass himself as an actor. Photo’s are whack, you can make some good looking people look bad. This photo was probably taken before he’d had a chance to suck up his daily blood quotient.

Saved. Quality flick.

Very clever movie.

"I am filled with God's love!"

…she angrily retorts, throwing a Bible at her classmate’s head.

and Scott Pilgrim!

Anyone know when the At Bat app is available?

/too lazy to look it up

Unavailable in Arkansas

Too complicated

Amusing stuff from Will Ferrell, introducing the New Orleans Hornets on court yesterday

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/will-ferrell-announcer-bulls-hornets-288486

“Trevor Ariza still listens to Bell Biv DeVoe!”

Ha, I was just watching that.

"ironically he hates Italian food" wasn't quite as funny. Gotta work on your Bellinelli intro, Will.
Wow. Just wow.

I find this to be really embarassing for teh Dodgers.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-is-sabermetrics-and-which-teams-use-it/

One branch to rule them all.

or for the person making assumptions and actually writing that article.

Well, the article was written by Vic Innuendo.

My only thought to this piece is “what an arrogant fuck”.

Redundant when commenting on a Fangraphs article.

The Cardinals just hired the dork rocket scientist from Fantasyland to be their director of stats or something and the best he can come up with is “I don’t know if they use stats or not”

There’s literally zero teams that employee no statisticians. Even the Twins supposedly have someone.

Okay done raging on this article after this. This article is incredibly insulting to anyone that actually works for these teams. If he knew how staggeringly smart even the lowest level guys were he’d give up his writing career in a heartbeat.

Plus there’s the really horrible assumption that anyone can scout so everyone has it. It’s really plan to see the A’s can’t draft a hitter to save their lives but they’ve got someone out there so it totally counts.

the A’s can’t draft a hitter to save their lives

I like how you didn’t use the Dodgers for this.

Clearly this guy does not know about the existence of Alex Tamin!

Jeopardy Photo quiz!

Where was Nolan Ryan when this picture was taken?

Inside an Atari 2600

vero beach?

Chris wins!

sweet, I made a good guess…. could just tell by scoreboard it was a ST site, can see it shows Dodgers as the home team, only place I know of before AZ was Vero Beach. What threw me off a little was why were the Astros wearing their home uniform?

or maybe back then, white wasnt always the home team.

my guess would be rules weren’t too strict for ST. Dodgers probably felt a tequilla sunrise rainbow was enough differentiation

Wasn’t that the Astros road uniform too for a number of years?

Has to be early in the Houston tenure for Ryan. Maybe 1980 or 1981.

On the pitcher’s mound.

Earth

you know, you could go on Jeopardy and answer every question with Earth, and Alex Trebek would slap you

FORM OF A QUESTION, ASSTARD!

Except, the question was a question, not a statement ala Jeopardy “questions”. So, no need to answer the question in the form of a question. Otherwise, you get this:

Where was this picture taken?
Where is Vero Beach?
In Florida, but please answer my question, where was this picture taken?

“Who are three men who have never been in my kitchen?”

We know Coolio has been in the kitchen, he just doesn’t know what’s cookin.

Wow. I didn’t remember major leaguers ever wearing mesh trucker hats.

Say that to his face.

right? It must have just been for Spring Training, but very strange

In a state of bliss

That is a badass photo.

QUICK!! What stadium?

Brian Shawn Holman Stadium

Huh
This SI link to that photo says Ryan was pitching against the Cubs

Was Kissimmee ravaged by a hurricane maybe that year?

Osceola opening in 1985, maybe it wasn’t ready yet?

But again

the Cubs would never be playing games in Florida during ST.

Right.

SI got the photo from Getty Images

the Getty Images description makes no mention of the Cubs. I call SI shenanigans

Getty got the image from Focus on Sport. That’s where it dead ends for me

nice work tracing the source

I got paid once to find out these things

And I am pretty good at it

this is garbage

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/02/08/la-county-oks-1000-fine-for-throwing-football-frisbee-on-beaches/

it’s stupid. There obviously have to be more important things to worry about at the beach. Maybe like the life guards or the police running over and killing sunbathers with their four wheel drives.

I imagine

you had incidents between people on the beach where some overthrown frisbee or football hit someone else and they complained to the lifeguard, now you don’t have to worry about this because you probably give people a warning and tell them what the fine is and they won’t disrupt anyone anymore. Not sure why folks want to throw things on the beach anyway.

Yes, now get off my sand.

Jesus
Not sure why folks want to throw things on the beach anyway.

If you are not throwing things on the sand why are you on the beach?

I go to the beach for the ocean and cuz its hotter then shit in the valley. Im in the water the whole time, only time im not, is when im snacking on a sandwich or doritos, or other things possibly, but then its right back into the water I go!

I would guess

the last 40 times I’ve been to the beach, I did not go in the water

yeah, you know, seems like a few are like this… Personally I never understood why people like going to the beach if they arent going into the water…. but ive just never been into tanning.

I mean, there are other reasons to go to the beach, but I mean as far as just sitting there and letting the sun bake you…. and not enter the water… or enter the water for a dip, or cool off, then back to getting baked…. or sleeping.

My tanning days are long gone

I now have skin that burns easily, so I don’t go to the beach any more, and when I did I covered up

Playing some kind of sport

(besides girl watching) was always (and still is) my favorite thing to do at the beach. Frisbee, football tossing, soccer ball kicking, paddle ball, kite flying (well not really a sport, but kites could easily crash on someone). Next up would be digging in the sand and building sand castles, but I also see that you are not allowed to dig any holes more than 18 inches deep in the sand. People have obviously complained and maybe someone got sued, so now we can’t do anything but just sit on our towels and swim in the water? Whatever happened to common sense?

common sense was banned as well, so now we regulate it.

Remember, we're talking about the local government here.

Common sense does not apply. If you doubt it, go to your local city council meeting. There are people there that want the cities to clamp down on everything.

I've learned all I need to know about local gov

from parks and rec

z

I’m sure this will be easy for some of you.

Name the pitching rotations.

can anyone do me a solid and tell me what stadium this is? Sorry bout the shitty picture


http://i.imgur.com/MbeQE.jpg

did you take this photo?

yeah

shoulda turned of the flash, but I was in a hurry as I was late to Supercross

Looks like Forbes Field

Here are a few Google images that seem to match:

awesome
And the image itself

Also seen here, confirming Game 7 in 1960.

beat me to it!

was just about to link to that

So this shot is from Carnegie tower or something?

Per Flickr

here:

Famous LIFE magazine photograph by George Silk of students atop the Cathedral of Learning after the game and series winning 9th inning homerun by Bill Mazeroski (read the blog to find out more about this photograph or get some links to purchasing a print of it).
thank you

this was going to bother me forever if I didn’t get an answer

now you know, Carnegie Mellon students atop the Tower of Learning watching the Pirates in the WS against the Yankees at Forbes Field. What restaurant were you in?

red robins irvine spectrum

I was going to say, it has to be Red Robin or Applebee’s.

Now I am thinking about the retiring coach Applebee’s commercial when they put his picture on the wall. Getting dusty in here…

I know I shouldn’t expect too much from a restaurant in a box, but what does a ballpark in Pittsburgh have to do with a chain from Seattle?

Not all red robins have the same things

I would simply argue that they go for images that are iconically american(butchered that sentence didn’t i?), not necessarily local to seattle or the location of the restaurant.

for w/e reason red robins walls come off as cool and interesting to me

while Applebees comes off as cheesy.

I found it funny that the Applebee’s in Fountain Valley had a huge Dodger wall.

Applebee's is just bitter that OC likes Chili's more

What would be cool would be a local burger joint that had locally relavant photos up and like little league trophies and whatnot : )

So Ballpark Pizza but with burgers

pizza works too, I’ll have to try Ballpark Pizza the next time I’m behind the Orange Curtain : )

I haven't been to one in forever

they are not as big as they used to be, only 3 locations left. They usually have team banners(little league, ayso etc) wall to wall though. I practically grew up there it was THE place for team parties. You wouldn’t even think to go anywhere else.

Haven’t been there forever, but I am a fan.

I miss Backstop Pizza now :(

Hey, the one in Culver City?

Yep. That place was awesome after games.

I knew the owners in the mid 90’s. Name of Spatafora, had a few Super Bowl Parties there in the back room. They moved to Vegas. Great guy, short, stout, loud.

apparently Tower of Learning is Pitt not Carnegie Mellon

More on that photo here and here:

“I hated stadiums and I couldn’t work with all that noise in my ears,” he once said.
Silk does not recall what, precisely, drew him to the top of the Cathedral of Learning on October 13, 1960. It just seemed the best place to be, he says. He could not have anticipated the enduring power of the image. For here is a picture that baseball has, in a sense, been feeding on for two generations. Forbes Field sits in the distance, so hazy that it could be a dream. In the foreground are fans who, in their sport coats and dresses, project the cleanliness and propriety that baseball has always tried to cultivate if only as a counterweight to the rougher reputation of the men who played the game. Something about the image remains alluring, even haunting: Is it the idea that things in America, as typified by the national pastime, were better then?

i always wondered why there were no LF bleachers

My first thought was that it was of Mazeroski’s homer but it’s hard to know

Dodgers should just trade Uribe for Burnett and be done with it.

They would end up with Sean instead of A.J.

Either Burnett would be great

As it means Uribe would be off the team. That’s the main thing.

Although, the thought of paying A.J. Burnett $33 million for two years is quite unappealing.

I thought about this earlier this morning. Would’ve been a good move prior to Capang.

is this things Dodger fans say?

Like OB12 said

if we didn’t have Capuano or Harang I’d be for it, though I think Uribe will be bouncing back to an ok season.

Dodgers signed Andrew Sisco, yeah buddy.

Sisco kid?

He was a friend of mine

This signing feels Incomplete

He’s got dumps like a truck.

gimme some of his sister Karen

Few better feelings than taking over the lead when using your last letter in Words With Friends.

Indeed

I got burned out on WWF right around Christmas and haven’t really played it since, except for one game recently.

I saw this before the post above and cracked up thinking it was old wrestling.

I’m playing one person who I crush every game, one who I’m pretty even with but I’m starting to beat him regularly and then my girlfriend who always beats me, but I just won against her.

I must be getting better at it.

The World Wildlife Federation is pissed at you right now

His gravestone will read:

He punched kittens but it was a panda that did him in.

I can get work done or get into a dumb Twitter fight with Josh Macciello decisions decisions.

Ask him about his nonexistent movies.

Asked him what was favorite scene was in Walkaway Joe. The dude is very good at deflecting I’ll give him that.

I think it's real

http://www.hsx.com/security/view/WALKJ

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09174/979170-67.stm?cmpid=news.xml

I wonder if it ever actually got made

Or maybe the producer flaked when it came to actually spending the money?

which would mean it never actually got made
haha I just saw that

Will today end with you being hired by his corporation? ;)

Or outing them as non existent.

It appears there's a new post above, with more prospects galore!

http://www.truebluela.com/2012/2/9/2784042/dodgers-2012-minor-league-countdown-50-41

There you came to save the day!

Humma’s ears are burning

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